Easy Fold?

Phil2 · #1 05-11-2005, 10:32 AM

Private 1-table Tournament, 5 handed.

Blinds at 100/200.

Hero has about 17K, Villian has 11k.

Hero picks up 88 UTG.

Hero calls, Villian raises to 1k, Button folds, Blinds fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (2300) 2 players:

4 5 6 rainbow.

Hero checks, Villian moves in for around 10K.

Hero?

Set is unlikely and overcards are extremely probable. Is this an easy fold or do I risk 10k on what appears to be about a coin flip senario?

Lurshy · #2 05-11-2005, 11:03 AM

Why the check on such a favorable flop (if not to look for a check raise)?

Without hitting a set, that board is about as good as it gets. Would opponent overplay A4-6 (or call the pf raise with those hands?)? Can't see him overbetting a set. 77,99, 10 10, weaker pair possible. I think two overs unlikely, but possible.

If you think he overplays weak hands for protection call. If you think he over-bets solid hands fold. But next time make an opening bet, to see where you stand.

locutus2002 · #3 05-11-2005, 11:41 AM

I think this is an easy fold.

Stop and take stock of the tournament. You have 85XBB, a large stack. This is at best a marginal situation.

I think a conservative estimate of the range of villain's hand is AA-TT and AK, AQ. 1/2 the time your 1:5 and the other 1/2 your 2:1 favorite.
I think a liberal estimate of the range of villain's hand is 22-AA, Ax-Ak, KT-KQ, etc. In which case you are way ahead on average.

I don't like the way you played the hand. 88 is alot of hand 5 handed, and its not going to play well out of position against alot of flops. You need to raise PF to either take down the pot or see where you are at.

After the flop, I would lead out because the 88 is probably the best hand, but I don't want to C/R with it.

There's a lot of play left in this tournament and you are going to have to be more engaged in the hands if you are going to win.
[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

mts · #4 05-11-2005, 11:47 AM

if he has an overpair you are the winner 25%, if he has overcards you are the winner 75%. If you REALLY think he has overcards then you have to call. If you are a beginner this seems like a good time to test your read.

Phil2 · #5 05-11-2005, 12:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if he has an overpair you are the winner 25%, if he has overcards you are the winner 75%. If you REALLY think he has overcards then you have to call. If you are a beginner this seems like a good time to test your read.

[/ QUOTE ]

While the %'s may be accurate, I think that it is important to consider 1) the line I chose with 88, and 2)the amount I have invested. Both contribute to the way this hand was played by Hero and Villian.

The blinds are at only 100/200 and I have around 16K in front of me, and I have only 1K invested in this pot. With 88 I chose to only call the preflop raise. Playing 88 this soft 5 handed is poor, but it does allow you to try to hit a set and trap. However, checking this flop is worse, and I allowed Villian to move in for about 10K. Even with overs, Villian makes a good bet. When I have only 1K invested and loads of tournament left with a very good stack, it seems unreasonable (even if I believe I am ahead) and almost reckless to commit 10K more to defend my 1K investment. Poor hand.

mts · #6 05-11-2005, 01:49 PM

sorry i was mistaken. i thought you had a read on him.

if he flipped his cards up before you acted and showed 2 overs, would you call? I would call 100% of the time.

Phil2 · #7 05-11-2005, 02:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if he flipped his cards up before you acted and showed 2 overs, would you call? I would call 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously then it would be an easy call. I explained this hand in hypathetical terms based on an actual hand that occured that night but was not involved in. An arguement ensued, and I was curious about some opinions. The point is, 88 was played so poorly that it is nearly impossible to put Villian on any hand (besides the preflop raise) without knowing a little how he plays. There was an opportunity for a reraise and a flop bet, but neither things occured. If he calls the preflop reraise, then (in this circumstance) it is easy to broaden his possible holdings. On a ragged (but coordinated) flop like this, how he reacts to a flop bet also will give some information. But because 88 was played so poorly, reads (besides knowing a little how villian plays) based on information gathered during the hand is at a minimum. It is time to fold; even if you are 60% sure he has overs, it is still not enough to commit another 10K.

CardSharpCook · #8 05-11-2005, 02:08 PM

I call here 8 days a week (twice on Sunday). Sure, he'll show me an over pair 50-60% of the time, but my 6 outs and the pot odds make this a big longterm winner.

CSC

Noel Montgomery · #9 05-11-2005, 02:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I explained this hand in hypathetical terms...

[/ QUOTE ]

I just thought this part was funny...

I would have played this hand differently up to this point, but if I was in this position I would definitely call and expect to be shown A/K or A/Q. He may have 10/10 or J/J, but I've got a big enough stack to find out.

mts · #10 05-11-2005, 02:35 PM

????????

[ QUOTE ]
It is time to fold; even if you are 60% sure he has overs, it is still not enough to commit another 10K.

[/ QUOTE ]

this makes no sense arggg

my whole point on the read was you can't really put him on a percentage of hands unless you have a read. If your read is 60% overs then you absolutely have to call.