10 players, 5 WSOP seats, One sticky situation...

[Equal]

So here's the situation: WSOP qualifier on Party, 250ish players, 5 WSOP packages up for grabs. 6-8th get some decent amount of cash, but I was playing to give myself the best chance to win a WSOP seat.

The villian in this hand I had as a 20% VPIP and 15% PFR for the last 20 hands we had played. However we had been playing SH at two tables before we were amalgamated into the final table only a few hands ago.

My general read on him was that he was fairly tight, and played fairly standard.

The final table so far pretty much consisted of a pre-flop raise taking down the blinds. So fairly standard stuff for late in a MTT.

I had been fairly aggressive late in this tournament stealing often however I was yet to play a hand at the final table.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1000 (10 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP3 (t16626)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t16900)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Button (t25635)</font>
SB (t12814)
BB (t43931)
UTG (t33822)
UTG+1 (t13040)
UTG+2 (t47393)
MP1 (t11620)
MP2 (t24219)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t2500</font>, Button calls t2500, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

So pf seems pretty straightforward. Unusual for someone to smooth call a pre-flop raise however.

Flop: (t6500) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t4000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t8000</font>...

I have two overcards and a nut flush draw. It's 4k back to me and I have t10,400 left in my stack.

If I fold I am left with t10,400 and that's 10.4BB.

If I call, I am left with 6.4BB

If I reraise, my only option is pretty much to push all-in, leaving him to call t6,400.

If you think I should call, how do you suggest I proceed if I miss my heart draw? If I hit an ace or jack?

I just thought of this - would anyone bet differently on this flop? Maybe check-raise all-in?

[Equal]

Just one another question... I raised 2.5 the BB here pre-flop, would it perhaps be better to stick with a standard 3xBB as it makes it harder for someone to flat call here?

[whiskeytown]

If I HAD to hazard a guess....based only on this....

I'd presume a medium pocket pair...- possibly as low as even 6's, and maybe up to 9's/10's - could he be trying a trap with AA/KK/QQ - possibly, but I'm gonna guess not AA, because I think he also has a heart.

You're over 1/3rd pot committed with much better odds to draw to the nuts and put yourself in prime position for a seat - but I can't see a call - I see it as either muck or raise, IMHO. Either way, if you drop it, you're in 9th place and you will have to get a hand to get there. Won't have enough to bluff/muck if you're reraised.

If it were me, I'd raise all-in and pray....let us know how it went.

RB

[whiskeytown]

highly doubt it'd make a diff. at this stage - a lot of raises near the end of a tourney come down to 2.5 or 3 times BB -

RB

[theordinaryboy]

i like the pf raise, i agree with whiskey that 2.5 or 3 isnt really much different, only the blinds might think its only 1.5x bb but this guy called from the button.

I think check-raising the flop is the best play considering your fragile position.

You check, he checks

Well you get a free card here and now that he probably has a weak holding.

You check he bets 4000

I would then push as the pressure would really be on villain, your play looks a lot stronger than a continuation bet and this would get villain thinking your hand is better than what it actually is i.e. he might fold his 9's or 10's (which is what i put him on) thinking you have AA-JJ.

And even if he does call you have those outs.

Your only problem is if:

you check, he pushes.

I would probably fold then, perhaps a bit weak but your stack would still be relatively healthy and your chances of 5th still plausible.


Anyway thats my thoughts but i am a very inexperienced mtt player.

[arod15]

Thats a call. You have a 9 outs to the flush 1 out for the back door striaght draw and 6 over cards. It wasnt a bad play to bet the flop, but given the cirumstance that you felt uncertain i wouldnt see it as a bad thing to check that flop. you felt he had something. Checking it there it think gives the position back to you allowing you to check raise him perhaps move in on him and take down the pot. Tough situtation but iwould def move in there. Folding isnt completerly horrible and calling is a pathetic play where u telling the opponent what you have. Move in ur in it to win it

[slickpoppa]

After his raise, you have to push. If you fold, you would be in last place and only have 40% of the chips of the guy in 5th place. You are getting about 2.4:1 odds if you push, and your nut flush draw is good for AT LEAST 2:1 odds. But your jack and ace might also be a live. So your actual odds could be even close to 50:50. Since you are short stacked relative to 1-5th place, you definitely cannot ignore the pot odds in your favor.

[Glenn]

Move in when you are 1st to act on the flop. It's an overbet, but it's the right play.

[Patrick Duffy]

does it make a difference that if you made your flush it woudlnt necessarily be the nuts? not that id call in willain's spot with 57h, but still, everyone is calling it the nuts...

[jacobsta]

The nuts and the "likely nuts" aren't much different in this scenario- everybody is calling it the nuts because chances are, the guy has at best Kh, so you are definitely "live" - the only time it matters that its not the true nuts is if your outs aren't live..