very shortstacked, 4 left

ethan · #1 01-10-2005, 08:09 PM

I'm getting something like 9:1 to complete all-in. If I fold then the button's going to have to go all-in before the blind comes back to me.

What's the best play here? Fold or call?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t255)
BB (t5880)
UTG (t1620)
Button (t245)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Button folds, Hero...

Gramps · #2 01-10-2005, 08:28 PM

Don't worry about your chip odds. It's bubble/endgame/survival strategy time - pot odds don't have much relevance as a short stack.

Even if you complete and your 93s beats BB's random hand (you'll win about 43% of the time), where does that get you? Not very far. You now have 510, and if the button wins his BB, you'll still be the next one forced all-in (in your SB).

Fold. You're fighting for 3rd place and it's 20% payout. All the planets will have to align for you to get anything more. Why take a 57% chance of being eliminated when the button will be 50% or so to be eliminated in his BB?

Pretty much the only "reward" for winning with your 93s, is that for the times the button does survive his BB, you'll have a better chance of getting third still. Getting knocked out 57% of the time to do it definitely ain't worth it though.

Sucks to be a puss, but sometimes it's the best $EV play.

HoldingFolding · #3 01-11-2005, 02:40 AM

I find myself in this spot fairly regularly; you should fold. Incidentally, what really grates is when everyone folds round when the button is in the BB when the big stacks could easily put him all in for want of half a BB or so (Obviously wouldn't happen in this case.)

ethan · #4 01-11-2005, 02:49 AM

Basically my thoughts on this one too. Just wanted to make sure it was as clear-cut as it looked to me at the time, as I folded pretty quickly.

Almost even managed to pull this one off, but the other short stack rivered a miracle 2 pair to win his BB hand and I went out shortly afterwards. Can't win 'em all, I guess.

rachelwxm · #5 01-11-2005, 11:27 AM

fold and its not even close. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
think of this as a battle to 3rd place, a revolver that have 50% of chance loaded, why pull the trigger first? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

ColdestCall · #6 01-11-2005, 01:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
fold and its not even close. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
think of this as a battle to 3rd place, a revolver that have 50% of chance loaded, why pull the trigger first? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I like that analogy. A lot.