What do you do here?

[Lurshy]

Can't get the converter to work, so my apologies.

The Set-Up. Early in $30+ MTT on Party.

I haven't shown down a hand, but lost some chips when I got pushed off of medium pockets that didn't hit. One of the hands was against the villian (button) when I folded to his all-in chk raise on the flop.



#Game No : 1217835468
***** Hand History for Game 1217835468 *****
NL Hold'em Trny:7411872 Level:1 Blinds (10/15) - Wednesday, November 24, 15:06:15 EDT 2004
Table Multi-Table(143767) Table #13 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: co-1 ( $1075 )
Seat 2: co ( $1015 )
Seat 3: Button ( $1300 )
Seat 4: SB ( $610 )
Seat 5: BB ( $785 )
Seat 6: EP1 ( $810 )
Seat 7: EP2 ( $1010 )
Seat 8: MP1 ( $1600 )
Seat 9: Hero ( $655 )
Seat 10: MP3 ( $1140 )
Trny:7411872 Level:1
Blinds (10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Kd Ks ] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
EP1 folds.
EP2 folds.
MP1 folds.
Hero raises [40].

I made a small open raise PF as I wanted action, though I think I would've gotten some action with a Larger PF raise.

MP3 calls [40].
CO-1 folds.
CO folds.
Button calls [40].
SB calls [30].
BB folds.

4 to the flop, more than I wanted, and noone came over-the-top [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

** Dealing Flop ** [ 3c, Ah, 4d ]

Ace on the flop, Yuck, but I figure I need to represent the Ace, I bet 150 into a pot of 175. Anything more and I'm pot commited. Would like to think I could fold to a reraise, but after doing that twice on prior hands, I am a bit edgey as well.

SB checks.
Hero bets [150].
MP3 folds.
Button calls [150].
SB folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ac ]

Turn is another Ace, The one caller to my flop bet was one that came over-the-top of me on one of the 1st hands, when I layed down.

What do you do?

[ZootMurph]

This early in the tournament, I probably check with the intention of folding. I can't see much of a draw on that flop for anyone to stay in for (anyone left with a 2 or 4 trying to hit a straight?)... So, those callers either have the Ace, a pocket pair, or a smaller pocket pair. With 2 callers, I can't see both NOT having the Ace, so I'm ready to let it go, still having enough chips left to play with and get back.

[zaxx19]

I try not too bet against someone having an ace..especially early in a tourney. It's upsetting that your KK flopped an ace but isnt that the risk in only raising a little and wanting to be played back at?? If you are willing too take the reward of deception you need to be able too handle the risks of a bad flop and being able to lay here. In fact at my levels of play I probably dont even bother with it after the flop with only a small raise preflop and out of postion(weak tight i understand but given the horrible calling stations at my tables i hope you will understand [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]). Of course I am not telling you how too play at your levels just giving you some insight into low level play.

[Lurshy]

It was a quandry. I took a shot on the flop, and had one caller.

The 2nd Ace though was actually good for me. If he was ahead, he was still ahead. If he was behind, he didn't catch anythin with that Ace. It also makes my play a bit more credible if he doesn't have an Ace, and makes it slightly less likely that he has an Ace.

I continued the play and pushed. Hating it the moment I did. He layed down though, and I took the pot.

Now although he could have layed down a small A, giving me credit for a big A, I think it was more likely he had a smaller PP or a busted draw.

The reason I hated the push, though even though I took down the pot: I would only get called by a winning hand. If I thought I was ahead, the better play may have been to check the turn feigning weakness, and calling on the turn or river in the hope he bluffs some chips at the pot.

The reasoning: Due to my emotions, I knew I was risking my tourney life on the hand. So then it becomes how to get the most chips in th pot if I were ahead.

Check Fold - The best choice to insure survival
Raise All-in : Worked this time, but I don't think I got as much out of the hand as I could Have
Check Call or Check Raise - May have gotten someone that was behind to bluff off some chips.

I may attempt some math in a later post to see how the chip ev bears out.

Observations are welcome. Was the push just foolish even though it worked out?

[Lurshy]

I am going to attempt to do some chip ev calculations based upon some assumptions (which may be inaccurate, but they were essentially what I was going by intuitively).

1- There was a 50% chance Button had an Ace.
2- A small % (5-10%) of the time I could get a small Ace to lay down with an All-in., This would be partially offset by the times when he calls behind me and sucks out.
2b- A small % of the time (10%) he calls when I am dominating him (e.g. QQ) and he doesn't suck out. This after all is 1st level of a fairly small buy-in tourney.

3- If I checked ( and checked on the river again if necessary) 75% of the time I face a bet. 50% with an Ace or another hand that beats me, 25 % a bluff or 2nd best hand.
3b- If I face a bet, we will get all my money in the pot heads up
4- A free card doesn't hurt me here, there are few cards to come that beat me if I am not already beat.
5- If it get checked through to the end I win 90% of the time.

Size of the pot before the turn card was 475, my remaining stack was 465. Villian had me covered.

Option One = Fold ev=465

Option Two - Bet All-In
ev= (.45*0)+(.10*~1300)+(.45*475)=343

Option Three - Check Call/Raise
ev= (.50*0)+(.25*~1300)+(.22*475)+(.03*0)= 430

Well I think this bears out my feelings that the push was an empotional one that happened to work out, I was better off with a check call/raise, but a check fold was probably the best overall choice.

Comments welcome (especially because I am very new to these types of calculations), and have a Great and Blessed Thanksgiving.

- Lurshy

[Lurshy]

There was only one caller to my flop bet.

[willperkins]

I would have check/folded to a bet after the Ace hit. This may sound weak/tight, but the blinds are still low and you have plenty of chips left to do battle with.

[zaxx19]

iD BET THE FLOP...THEN GO BACK TO DEFENSIVE PLAY... I glad it worked for you but we both know the push was utterly foolish for the reason you yurself outlined. On EV...again i think it might be a case of high versus low buyin EV. In a small buy in i just dont NEED this pot. I know there is a good chance i can trap some donkey before the first break and double up without taking this big of a chance. In a 100$ tourney maybe i take 2 shots at the pot...definitely not an all-in though.