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#12
07-20-2005, 07:51 PM
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Re: Party 50/100 Weird Blind Battle
[ QUOTE ]
I think there is plenty reason to check the turn. I can't imagine this guy putting in 3 bets on the flop and folding the turn. A checkraise is more likely than a fold by a good margin. [/ QUOTE ] I agree. I think the poster that said you should either go check-check or bet-bet, was right. Betting the turn and checking the river was awful. 
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#13
07-20-2005, 07:54 PM
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Re: Party 50/100 Weird Blind Battle
[ QUOTE ]
I think there is plenty reason to check the turn. I can't imagine this guy putting in 3 bets on the flop and folding the turn. A checkraise is more likely than a fold by a good margin. [/ QUOTE ] That may be true, but it doesn't prove that checking is the play. The reason is that getting a fold is SO valuable. Let's say he is going to call down. Betting is .6BB worse than checking. Let's say he is going to check-raise the turn, bet / call the river. Now checking is 1.2 BB better than betting. But what if he is going to fold the turn, and our check makes him call the river? Even if we don't actually make the failed river bluff (which would of course make the EV change even worse), checking is a 3 BB mistake. If you're going to bluff the river when he checks to you again and get called, now it's a 3.8 BB mistake to check the turn. Oops! So, let's say he is going to fold 25% of the time, call 25%, and raise 50%. Now your check vs bet decision makes no difference, and you can just think about metagame considerations. Make it a little more likely that he'll fold though, or a little less likely that he'll check-raise, or add in your failed bluffs on the river when a turn bluff would have succeeded, and betting is clearly best. -Eric
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#14
07-20-2005, 10:44 PM
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Re: Party 50/100 Weird Blind Battle
hey, why do you say checking the turn is .6 BB worse than calling in that first instance if he is gonna call down? Don't you have about 20% equity so wouldn't it be .8 BB worse? Or am I doing something wrong?
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#15
07-21-2005, 02:04 AM
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Re: Party 50/100 Weird Blind Battle
Hi Lmn55d,
With your 20% win rate, you lose .8 of the BB you put in on the turn. Offsetting this is the .2 of HIS BB you win. Put another way, 80% of the time you lose your 1 BB, and 20% of the time you win 1 BB. .8 (-1) + .2 (1) = .6 Good luck. Eric
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