AK top 2, along for the ride

[ethan]

Most of this morning's play went pretty smoothly, but I butchered this one. Preflop's questionable, flop's more questionable, and I'm not overjoyed with any decision available on the turn.

Party 3/6, pretty good table. UTG is loosish (vpip is up around 40) and a little aggro preflop, but nothing notable. (edit - his stats: 41/9/1.8.) He hasn't gotten too out of line postflop, but isn't shy about value-betting (so far, he hasn't been at the table too long.) The button is 14/4/1 over a reasonably large # of hands...so, rocky. I've been playing my usual 21/13/2 game and running well.

I haven't seen UTG limp-reraise until this hand. Preflop I should probably cap, but I don't and Mr 14/4 takes care of it for me. I probably should have raised the flop, and folded if it came back to me capped. But, after I've donked it up on those two streets we get to the turn and UTG keeps betting. The pot's big, but I'm probably putting in 4-6BB to see showdown. If I'm up against AK and something we beat, then a 3-way showdown gives me a profit of 8-9BB.

I'm embarrassed just looking at this hand. I'd appreciate input on any/all of it.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (16.33 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (15.16 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero...

[shadow29]

I'm new to the combinatronics stuff, so bear with me. There are 4 ways for him to have AK and 1 way each for AA and KK. Thus, he's 2:1 more likely to have AK than a set. Since the Button is as you say rocky, then I doubt that he caps with TT and goes nuts on the flop. I doubt that he goes nuts with QQ or JJ on the flop. Thus, the T didn't really change things.

UTG, however, could have 88 I suppose, if he's laggish preflop. But since you didn't say so, I'll assume that he's your garden variety (44/0/1.5) type player. I can definetly see UTG having some sort of big ace here. But that makes it even more likely that Button has KK.

I think that a calldown is reasonable.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm new to the combinatronics stuff, so bear with me. There are 4 ways for him to have AK and 1 way each for AA and KK. Thus, he's 2:1 more likely to have AK than a set.

[/ QUOTE ]
Limp/raising AA/KK is far more common than limp/raising AK so I don't think estimating 2:1 between AK and AA/KK is correct. But I can't narrow UTG's range that much since the read is vague and his stats is poor. The rock doesn't seem like a mastermind to me either so I don't think we can fold the turn putting one of them on AA or KK and against KK we almost got the odds to call since we'll have great implied odds (on the other hand, if one of them holds KK the other is likely to hold one of our A-outs).

[ QUOTE ]
I think that a calldown is reasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agree.

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think we can fold the turn putting one of them on AA or KK and against KK we almost got the odds to call since we'll have great implied odds (on the other hand, if one of them holds KK the other is likely to hold one of our A-outs).

[/ QUOTE ]
The problem with the "you have odds to call" argument is that I'm not closing the action on the turn, and the player left to act has capped the two previous streets. If UTG has KK I'm putting in 3 bets on the turn. If the button has KK (which I think is less likely) I'm putting in at least 2. That doesn't give me odds to chase against KK, particularly since I have only one out unless I'm facing KK and TT, and if that's the case I'll likely pay 4 bets to chase my 2-outer.

After the flop action I'm figuring I'm either getting half the pot or drawing close to dead.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think that a calldown is reasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]Agree.

[/ QUOTE ]
If the turn goes (utg)bet, (I)call, (button)raise, (utg)3-bet and it's 2 more to me with the possibility of a 4-bet, you still advocate calling down?