10 players, 5 WSOP seats, One sticky situation...

[AlwaysWrong]

Pushing preflop cannot be correct. He is sure to be a big dog if he gets called by any hand. AJo is abysmal against the top 5% of heads-up hands, and if you push for 16.7 big blinds those are the only hands that call you. Pushing with AJ here is barely better than pushing with two random cards.

I also think people are underestimating the players at this point in the tournament, at least as far as tightness goes. I have found the play in these late to be fairly weak-tight. You rarely see people playing back on bluffs or with sub-par hands unless they have absolutely monster stacks (80-100k).

Even though the big blind is a big stack, he's not a super big stack. If he doubles up Equal he'll be one of the short stacks. It's much more likely that the big stack is hoping to cruise than looking to play around.

This goes for his opponent even more. I think it's very unlikely that anyone will fool around on this flop without a real hand. Pushing could get the mid pairs to fold and hands like K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. All of the other hands will either fold to any bet or call no matter what.

I think given the flat payout structure it's important to look for ways to not go broke even if it's -ev to do so. In this spot we need to consider the hands that could cold-call him preflop.

The only hand that (imo) doesn't make his opponent's call a poor one is AA. The smaller than normal raise might also let in some pocket pairs and hands like KQ, KQs, QJs, JTs that are looking to hit a big flop or fold.

*AA obviously isn't folding. He also won't slowplay anymore for fear of the flush, and will make sure to get all his money in on the flop.
*Small pairs would fold if they missed for any bet, but the low cards mean these hands could easily have hit. They either fold for any bet or don't fold.
*Medium pairs it's harder to say and is player-dependant. A player with 77 or 88 might decide that Equal probably missed and this is a good time to make a stand. A push makes it much more likely that these hands will fold. If you go for the check-raise they might decide that they have to push to protect themselves, taking away the check-raise option. If you lead out for a small amount they will probably push over top. Medium pairs aren't doing anything fancy like making a min-raise.
*Suited connector type hands and KQ, etc will fold to any bet if they whiffed, obviously get all their chips in with the flush, and may fold to a push if they have just the flush draw.

From and EV standpoint it looks to me like pushing is the best play. However, given the nature of these tournaments I think it's quite reasonable to lead out for a small amount and fold to further pressure. He has 14 big blinds left, so if he leads for 3k and that's the last money he puts in I think he still has a good shot just by making liberal blind steals. He'll probably need to win a coinflip at some point, but he's really in a coinflip situation now too.

I guess overall I'd be extremely worried that I'm being trapped by AA here and be looking for a way to dump the hand. It seems like you have to take some stab at this pot since it's fairly large, but I'm willing to give up a little ev to get myself out of the trap.

[AlwaysWrong]

Reading over my post it's a bit muddled.

I've played at one of these final tables and watched some friends play at them as well. Blind steals work so often that I think you can afford to get away from situations where you'll go broke even if they are +ev just so you get more chances at the even more +ev blind steals.

A flat payout structure fundamentally means that the correct strategy is to give up a little ev to reduce your variance. I believe this is a situation where you can do that.

[transmitt]

Equal, I've been staying tuned for the exciting conclusion. What happened?

[jusander]

Yea, what happened?

[Equal]

Stop being so results oriented. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

j/k when I get a chance later tonight I'll post what I did and what happened.

[radioheadfan]

I'm all the F'CK in here every time. It's unlikely he's folding, but I'm not folding either. (You really wanna be on 10BB trying to fight your way back? Answer: No) You spike that heart, A or J, and I'm pretty sure that WSOP seat is yours.

Push and pray my friend.