BB bubble hand - what's my line?

[ethan]

I'm taking a break from ring games and getting back to SNGs, but my game's a little rusty. I wasn't entirely sure what line to take preflop, and I'd appreciate comments. This hand is in a party 20+2. CO big stack is a big stack because he got his JJ all-in preflop against KK, QQ, and A5s on the first hand and sucked out. (He raised to 50, A5s cold-called, QQ made it 200, KK made it 800, and he called all-in with JJ. Then A5s called. Then QQ said "I shouldn't call" and called.) Through 40 hands his VPIP is about 75%, and he's passive postflop. He'll bet small if checked to heads-up, but a flop checkraise and a turn bet have regularly gotten him to fold. He's not good. I'm nearly certain A6o is the best hand here...my guess is I'm around 60% pot equity. I'm not sure what his standards are for calling big preflop raises, since there haven't been many of those. The other smaller stacks have been largely tight-passive.

I've been playing fairly tight, but I don't think people have noticed that. The only hand of mine they've seen was a K7s steal a few hands ago that beat the big stack's ATs. That, they noticed, so my guess is his calling standards for my push may be low.

Blinds go up to 100/200 on my button, 2 hands after this one.

What line has the most value? I'm not too fond of a medium-sized raise, since that leaves me out of position with a hand (and stack) that make postflop tricky unless I get a good flop. I can check and hope for an ace on the flop. If after checking I make two bets postflop I'm pot-committed (or more likely all-in), and CO hasn't shown much willingness to fold to the first bet.

Some math on pushing:

If I have 60% equity when called then I make 250 Sklansky chips with a push regardless of what he does. This may be a generous estimate of my equity.

50% equity makes me 250 * (percentage he folds).

40% equity when called then I make (1-x)250 + x(.40 * 2530 - 1240) = (1-x)250 + x(-250) where "x" is his calling frequency. It's +EV if he calls less than half the time, and he's not going to have 60% equity more often than that.

If I only have 25% equity then my EV is (1-x)250 + x(.25 * 2530 - 1240) = (1-x)250 + x(-600) meaning I need his calling frequency to be below 30%. Again, I don't think he's a 75% favorite 30% of the time here.

So, pushing is +EV, but with this sort of opponent I'm wondering if I can do better. Does the fact that the other stacks are very tight make a difference?

***** Hand History for Game 1190491984 *****
100/200 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 7257428) - Wed Nov 17 19:55:55 EST 2004
Table Table 14106 (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 3: UTG (871)
Seat 4: CO (4164)
Seat 6: button (1160)
Seat 9: SB (565)
Seat 10: Hero (1240)
SB posts small blind (50)
Hero posts big blind (100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 6s, Ac ]
UTG folds.
CO calls (100)
button folds.
SB calls (50)
Hero...

If Hero does something other than push, what's my line when the flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? (Assume that if I'd raised to 350 or so it was flat-called by CO.)

[The Pez]

hmm, i probably just check preflop but thats just me, if he cold calls and small blind folds making it a heads up pot, i probably push in if flop is uncoordinated like in example or check fold if the flop seems dangerous.

but i think the preflop play is where the focus needs to be, not sure though

[ethan]

I just realized all of my EV calculations both ignore the 50 chips the SB put in and all my discussions assume he folds. The chips don't change things all that much, and I'd be shocked if the SB stayed around after a push.

[raptor517]

if blinds are 50-100, this is a definite check. if they are 100-200, it is an almost definite push. by flat calling he is weak 90% of the itme. if not, he is trapping and u are dead.

[ChrisV]

There are two possible lines.

(1) Push preflop. Aggressive, but OK if you are sure nobody is going to show up with a better hand.

(2) Check, check fold.

Everything else sucks.

I'm not sure I want to put my stack on the line here, but its really a style thing.