Another JJ Hand - A good Push?

[Lurshy]

Since JJ seems to be a hot topic of late, I though I would post this hand from last nights $15 Paradise MTT.

There were (I think) about 700 players, Top 60 get paid. We are in the meaningless money (I think about ~45 left), I have about an average stack. The blind levels are moving up quickly (every 12 minutes), and even an average stack is under pressure. Play has loosened up a bit due to that fact, tempting blinds, and the recent passing of the bubble. Big stack at the table is one of the tourney leaders. Blinds are T1000/2000 T100 ante. With $4000 already in the pot at the deal, stealing is occuring when possible. I am CO-1.

I had been at this table for only a few rounds, but I had been with some of the players for much of the tournament (on earlier tables). I starter out very tight but aggressive playing few hands, but taking-down several hands in post flop play. I showed a Nut set in on hand (QQQ). I loosened mid-way and made a couple of questionable calls that I sucked out on. There are a few at the table that may have seen that, but if not my image should still be tight.

Game #609679053 - Tournament Coral - 1,000/2,000 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2004/10/07-22:54:19
(CST)
Table "Coral 38" (MTT) -- Seat 6 is the button
Seat 2: PhiKappaPsi (26,234 in chips)
Seat 3: gambler1993 (33,006 in chips)
Seat 4: Lurshy (24,255 in chips)
Seat 5: Canary Leggs (13,557 in chips)
Seat 6: killerhand (17,312 in chips)
Seat 7: babyface2 (39,925 in chips)
Seat 8: shock & awe (12,607 in chips)
Seat 9: alvoid (57,307 in chips)
Seat 10: positano (19,379 in chips)
gambler1993: Ante (100)
Lurshy : Ante (100)
Canary Leggs: Ante (100)
killerhand: Ante (100)
babyface2: Ante (100)
shock & awe: Ante (100)
alvoid : Ante (100)
positano: Ante (100)
PhiKappaPsi: Ante (100)
babyface2: Post Small Blind (1,000)
shock & awe: Post Big Blind (2,000)
Dealing...
Dealt to Lurshy [ Js ]
Dealt to Lurshy [ Jh ]
alvoid : Fold
positano: Fold
PhiKappaPsi: Call (2,000)
gambler1993: Raise (6,000)
Lurshy : Raise (24,155)

UTG, & UTG+1 have folded MP1 has limped, and MP2 raised 3xBB. They both have me covered, but I pushed due to the following thinking:

I wanted to take down the pot. JJ multi-way isn't strong enough. If I just called, there would be about 3-1 pot odds for people behind me to call with, letting any two broadway cards or other hands into the pot behind me. If I raised the same as MP2 making it 12,000 to go I would be close to pot committed while giving him odds to call me.

I also like the idea that if I was called and was behind, I would get 5 cards to make a set, rather than possibly having to fold post flop and leaving myself in horrible shape.

My reads: Saw MP1 as wanting to see a flop cheap - weak play. I didn't expect a trap as open limping with a major PP is asking for trouble. I think He would have open raised a real hand. Small PP, or suited cards for him.

MP 2 I put on a steal or semi-steal (e.g. Ax small PP), the table was loosening slighlty (hence credit for sem-steal), the aggression looked oppourtunistic. With just limper in front of him, the raise looked suspicious. Am I just being optimistic? I did see him make probable steals on prior rounds. I am trying to think though if he had a real hand (AA-QQ, AK), would he play it different? maybe not.

So I pushed - figuring I was ahead, forcing a fold or call by weaker hand, and only risking CO, Button, SB, BB waking up with a serious PP.

What do you think of this play and logic? results later.

[trumpman84]

The middle position raise seems really strong. The amount of the raise is saying to me that he doesnt want anyone else in the pot, but he wants the early position guy to call. If he wanted to steal with a limper, I see a raise of 4x or 5x, not 3x. If I had to take a stab at what hand he had, I would say a pocket pair TT-AA with the higher ones being more likely or AK, but without actually playing, I don't know how much credit to give the guy.

[jimotto]

I definitely think it is a fold or push. If called I have to beleive you'll be at best a coin flip. But I'd probably push as well.

[Lurshy]

No bad beat story here. I did push and take down the pot.

Lurshy : Raise (24,155)
Canary Leggs: Fold
killerhand: Fold
babyface2: Fold
shock & awe: Fold
PhiKappaPsi: Fold
gambler1993: Fold
Lurshy : Winner -- doesn't show cards
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 17,900 | PhiKappaPsi lost 2,100 (folded)
gambler1993 lost 6,100 (folded)
Lurshy bet 24,255, collected 36,055, net +11,800 [ Js Jh ]


I posted it to see if there would be much flack, risking too much on JJ, the two in could have me beat, the 4 to come could as well. Its certainly the type of hand many have lost a tournament with.. The way I played it though, makes me wonder if I should just do this with 23os on occassion.

[The Student]

I think a push here is very reasonable.

I think you can either flat-call and hope that nobody comes in behind you and that no overcards flop, or you can just push here. With two people ahead of you already in the pot, you have to assume that pushing is the only way that you're going to get overcards out of the hand - you don't have enough chips to re-raise anything less than all-in. Since you said that people had been loosening up, I don't think you're behind on the hand, but you definitely don't want to face two players with overcards, so the push is good.

If you don't mind busting out ITM, but not at the FT, I think the push is the way to go. If you are up against QQ-AA, or one of your opponents calls and catches their overcard, so be it.

ts-