$33: JJ facing raise on the bubble.

[ravensfan]

So, here's what i'd do in order:
1) Fold and wait for the right time to initiate betting - likely once the tourney is a little more clarified
2) Call, and push if an Ace or King doesn't appear... if i'm feeling really tight, then I only push if i have top pair.
3) Push - don't like it too much here, maybe b/c 150 is a small %age of your stack...

Then again, i seem to be in the minority.

AK, QQ+ i'm playing for sure. But with AK, i'm only calling and trying to play the flop a little bit - probably slow play that if i hit the flop and betting if i miss it and he doesn't bet into me. Yeah, I'd push QQ, b/c even IF he has an Ace, it's far less likely we're racing. And I'll gladly take 70/30 (hard to put it at 70/30 with Js, since KQ or AQ are possible, especially when you consider that KJ, QJ, and AJ are unlikely).

[caretaker1]

EZ Push against his likely range.

$.02

[xJMPx]

Based on the comments I get I have come to the following conclusion. This play is totally read dependent.

If I think this is a decent player who'll only call with a very strong holding such as QQ+/AK then I'd push this hand.

However, if this player is a donky (which I thought he was) I should fold this because he could call with a large range of hands. Most of which I am way ahead of, however not so far ahead (i.e., 70/30) that I want to be putting my tournament life in jeopardy on the bubble and sacrificing $EV even though it's a +cEV.

Calling is also an option, and dumping the hand if overs appear on the flop, pushing if there are no overs.

Results:

HERO raises (1910) to 2060
HERO is all-In.
Villain calls (1360) (after a long pause)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7s, Kh, 6s ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 3h ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 4h ]
Villain shows [ 5s Ks ] [ a straight ]
HERO shows [ Jd Jh ] [ a pair of jacks ]

So I was offering him exactly 33% pot odds, while he had a hand that was 32.1% (pokerstove). Gutzy (wink) call. He went on the win the tournament.

Just a quick observation...i think this is your 3rd post in a week regarding playing JJ. You struggling with this hand?

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
Just a quick observation...i think this is your 3rd post in a week regarding playing JJ. You struggling with this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I think most would agree that JJ is a difficult hand to play. However, this is actually my first post about JJ.

And actually, I'm more interested in the bubble theory than JJ specifically in this case.

Agreed. Since I commented, i might as well give some feedback.

Dont quite know what the blinds are, but I would push this. Very solid hand, could take it down with a push here. In this situation, I would have to assume you are ahead and would quickly push this hand...pray it holds up.

[ravensfan]

I agree... however, i'd push even if putting him only on any 2 overcards... ie. 6hands that could call you.
I still think he's too unlikely to have one of these to make it worth not pushing - probabilistically.
Hard to put him on that though, especially when he's raising so often!
so, i guess any time your pair splits an over and a suited it's about 2-1 only? Still seems so rough when it happens.

Not so sure it was too donkish to call: worst case, he has 3 outs plus a flush draw (but only if he puts you at AK, be hard to assume you'd push say KQ in your spot). More likely, he's up against AQ, AJ, A10, 77+... too lazy to work out the permutations, but it might be 45% that you have an Ahigh, and 55% that you have a splitting pair, in which case it's an =EV call.
Tough one, but i'm not hating him for it...


What's everyone think?

[SCfuji]

hes leaving room to be able to fold, push.

[xJMPx]

[ QUOTE ]
More likely, he's up against AQ, AJ, A10, 77+... too lazy to work out the permutations, but it might be 45% that you have an Ahigh, and 55% that you have a splitting pair, in which case it's an =EV call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to have to disagree on what he should think my range is here. From his perspective, he has just seen a player that he can eliminate come over the top of a significant raise.

What hands are going to do this? AA/KK/QQ are certainly possibilities. JJ, TT, 99 are getting less likely. AKs maybe, and a further stretch maybe AQs.

So, his best case scenario is the AQs. He's about 35% here (remember, he's only getting 33% on pot odds).

Next best case, a pocket pair lower than KK. He's about 30% here.

And of course, AA/KK he's 20% at best.

So what is he putting me on? Based on his call, must have been a K with a lower kicker, or Qx for him to be a favourite. For him to be getting odds, AQ-? Is this reasonable when I have not been a maniac at this table?

Cheers.

Ps. I'm enjoying this discussion, it's really making me think this through. Will help next time I'm in this position for sure.

[ QUOTE ]
EZ Push against his likely range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. If we assume the hand he actually had is the worst hand he'll raise/call with, hero's $EV is -1.3% according to SNGPT, and I'd normally expect villain to have a tighter range than this.

This assumes villain will call a push, of course, which is really a poor play on his part here with K5s. Pushing first in with K5s isn't horrible on villain's part, but it doesn't make the +0.5% EV standard if we make hero and button tight and SB maniac. QQ is a fold here against K5s+ as villain's range here, too. Presumably hero needs to be this tight because he's up against the one stack who can bust him, and it'll happen often enough that he (and villain) are both effectively bleeding equity to the other two players by butting heads here. Also, there's the fact that at this point the shorty's reasonably desperate by comparison to everyone else, and hero ought to be able to use this fact to attack button/shorty selectively.