Top full house on the turn

[benkahuna]

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Hi

I posted this on another forum, and was a little bit surprised by the answers. What should I do here?

€50 buy in game, blinds €1-€1, generally loose, most stacks around €500-€800. Suppose you know nothing about Player A in this hand.

I call a pot raise to €7 on the button with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Most pots are raised preflop, and the raiser here could have a very wide range of hands. 6 of us see the flop.

Flop is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. 3 players check including the raiser, Player A bets €10, Player B calls €10, and I raise to €80. The first 3 players fold, A calls, and B calls.

Turn is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. A checks, B checks, and I bet €200. A raises all in, about €500 more, and B folds. I have €315 behind, so it costs me €315 into a €960 pot.


What should I do here? What if I knew more about player A?

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You have to call. Quads generally should be paid off and folding here would be incredibly weak.
There are only a few hands that can draw out on you and only one that beats you.


a single 7 gives the guy 1 out.

Any overpair has only 2 outs for the overboat.
The open str8 flush draw is only 2 outs.
An inside str8 flush draw is only 1 out.
Lowest full boat are 2 outs for quads.
You can only have 2 of the previous 4 at any given time.

You have a just over a 2 percent chance of getting the case 9. The smallest advantage you could possibly have here if you're ahead is 38:4 or 9.5:1. If you're behind, it's 41:1 against you. Pot is laying you just over 3:1 odds in your favor. If there's even a 25 percent chance that the guy doesn't have quads and you aren't playing too high for your bankroll, you have one choice. Put your money in.

You would need a rock solid read like the guy shaking uncontrollably to not do so. I might call even then. Sklansky says the worst mistake in poker is folding when you shouldn't--I see a strong enough chance of that happening now.

97 is a fairly likely holding. BTW, was this an actual hand? If so, how'd it play out?