$1,000 1 table freezeout. What do you do here??? - Page 2

#11 12-06-2005, 08:03 AM

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"You said that if you bet 1500, he pushes 100% of the time. Therefore, I bet 1500."

Noah, the point is I don't want him to push. I don't want to coinflip the tournament at this point. If I bet he pushes and I call, I'm now the dog if he has 2 overs and a spade.

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Meh, I give up.

It's only a coinflip if he has two overcards and a flush draw. I don't see why you're so hung up on this as his holding since you said yourself he could have a ton of other hands that you destroy. Getting hung up on the possibility that he could have two specific cards is just as ridiculous as the KK example I give. All that matters is the probability that he has certain hands. You gave those in your post, so assuming their right, your play is really really easy.

Is he even folding two overcards and a flush draw if you push anyway?

Melchiades · #12 12-06-2005, 08:17 AM

Not only does he need 2 overs and a flushdraw to be a favourite. He needs two live overs. How many of the hands he holds with two overs have a king, since you say he would reraise any ace preflop? You are basicly worried about QJ with one spade.

No matter what, I think your read on the villain is pretty impressive....

Double Down · #13 12-06-2005, 08:18 AM

"Is he even folding two overcards and a flush draw if you push anyway? "

i would say 70% of the time, so there is some good FE here. But the point is that whatever I bet, he's gonna push, and I won't want to call him. it's not like I'm minbetting to get him to raise into me and I have a great hand. I have a very, very vulnerable hand

#14 12-06-2005, 08:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
"Is he even folding two overcards and a flush draw if you push anyway? "

i would say 70% of the time, so there is some good FE here. But the point is that whatever I bet, he's gonna push, and I won't want to call him. it's not like I'm minbetting to get him to raise into me and I have a great hand. I have a very, very vulnerable hand

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Why aren't you going to call him given that you know you have him beat?

I was trying to refrain from saying this: you don't know how to play poker. You have absolutely no idea what the point of doing certain things with certain hands is if you're thinking that you should fold a hand that you know is favorite HU.

Melchiades · #15 12-06-2005, 08:32 AM

And even if he has QJ with a spade (which you seem certain he has, impressive to put him on one hand after he called a preflop raise). When you have already put 2000 into the pot, and he pushes you are going to fold even being only a 47/53 dog?

Kristian · #16 12-06-2005, 08:42 AM

You seem unwilling to accept that even though you have your opponent figured out, you can't assure yourself victory by playing the right way. This is poker, and the best you can do is maximise your Expected Value. Given your reads, this involves getting all your money in on this hand.

Double Down · #17 12-06-2005, 08:43 AM

I never, ever considered folding. LOL My point is that if he has 2 overs and a spade, he is the favorite. If I bet, I KNOW he'll raise me, and I really won't know if I'm ahead or behind.

"I was trying to refrain from saying this: you don't know how to play poker."

I play poker for a living and do very well, thank you.

By the way, I still haven't said what I did.

Just cuz I have him beat at the moment doesn't mean he's not a favorite to win the hand.

Melchiades · #18 12-06-2005, 08:48 AM

By your info there is exactly one hand (QJ with a spade) he can have that has you beat, and even then you are only a 47/53 dog. All other hands he has that he will push no matter what(yikes), you either are a favourite againts or have crushed. This makes getting all the chips in not a bad idea. Do you see why?

Some fantastic reads on your part, but you seem unwilling to go with them.

Double Down · #19 12-06-2005, 08:51 AM

"And even if he has QJ with a spade (which you seem certain he has, impressive to put him on one hand after he called a preflop raise). When you have already put 2000 into the pot, and he pushes you are going to fold even being only a 47/53 dog?"

This is my point. Of course I'll call. Ok, I'll divulge. I think pushing on the flop is best. i want him to know right then and there that he's going to have to gamble his tourney life if he wants to win that hand. And I don't want to give him a chance to check raise.

And no, I don't have him on qj. When did I say this?

Kristian · #20 12-06-2005, 08:57 AM

You said he could be a favourite with two overs and no aces. This range is QJ only.