On the Button - Raise Flop for Free Card, or Just Call?

buffett · #1 03-23-2005, 09:22 PM

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (6.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets, CO calls, Hero ???

I played about 700 hands yesterday, and this is the only one I remember, because I made one or two mistakes, including a huge one on the turn. When reviewing the hand today with a buddy, he said he might have raised here to try to fold out some of the early checkers but more importantly to get a free river card if the turn checks around. My thinking was that I wanted the early people to call MP3's bet to grow the pot to give me the odds to continue. What do you think?

The 3 early guys ranged from awful to decent:
BB 15/4/1.9 over 100 hands
UTG 25/5/1.0 over 60 hands
UTG+1 50/5/1.6 over 60 hands

.......Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, MP3 calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero ???

This is my huge mistake. I realize it's completely irrational but for some stupid reason I put UTG+1 on the nut flush so I folded. As it turns out, he had a set of 2's so

River: (10.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)

gave me the winning flush. My turn fold cost me $51. Terrible, terrible, terrible.

-web

djoyce003 · #2 03-23-2005, 09:30 PM

You've gotta call here. Your flush outs *might* be good although often the naked ace is in there. The other guy may not even have a flush, which means your straight outs are all likely good. Assuming no ace of spade in an opponent hand, you have 9 spade outs, plus another 6 straight outs that aren't included in the spade outs. 15 outs with 1 to come...you are getting good enough odds to call here...you are drawing at only 6 outs though if the ace of spades is out, and obviously drawing dead to someone with specifically the ace and another random spade. I would have called, folded unimproved, and yes I would have raised a non-spade card that completed my straight.

BoxTree · #3 03-23-2005, 09:38 PM

Please don't post results.

On the flop, you're getting 7.5:1, you have absolute position, an open-ended straight draw, and a backdoor draw to the second nut flush. Folding is not an option. So, call or raise? Raising may buy you a free card and may push out the Ace of Spades if you backdoor into your flush. If you have reason to believe that MP3 is betting with nothing, raising may clean up your Jacks and Tens. But you still have the problem of the CO calling, which means he could have Q or a weak king.

Calling induces more callers, which is excellent given that this is a small pot and you'd like to get a lot of callers if you hit your straight. Given your reads on BB, UTG, and UTG+1, you'll probably get a few callers if you call, and you'll likely be 3-way if you raise.

All things considered, I'd call here.

The check-raise of UTG+1 is screaming KQ, K2, Q2, or 22 (all possible given his VPIP of 50).

The turn is an obvious call. You're drawing to the second nut flush and you still have some straight outs (even though you chop with anyone who has a ten).

What did CO have?

Entity · #4 03-23-2005, 11:38 PM

I would call on every street.

Rob

MisterKing · #5 03-23-2005, 11:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would call on every street.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Likewise. And do your best not to be thinking in a results-based fashion. This will tear you apart mentally, and may do some serious damage to your bankroll as well. Its hard not to do, but you should try to focus on the situational play being right and let the chips fall where they may, as long as you're consistently in with the best of it.

Perseus · #6 03-24-2005, 02:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would call on every street.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the great part about 5-8 tabling. When you fold this on the turn don't even watch the river card fall [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Actually I would watch it to improve my read on the player, but really try not to think results based...just think about the reasons calling would be correct, and adjust next time.

Belok · #7 03-24-2005, 03:09 AM

Folding the turn is not an option.

You have the 2nd nut flush draw, an open ended that is probably still good (UTG+1 wouldnt checkraise a flush draw unless he's a complete moron, even if he was, it very well could be a non nut flush draw)

On the turn there was no raise from the other 2 in the hand, so there is no made flush. The only thing you're scared of right now is the ace of spades being out there. That would reduce your outs from 15 to 6. Even if you only have 6 you've got odds to see the river.

easy call. If UTG+1 bets out and isnt raised on the river, i would raise him.