Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Other Gambling Games

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-02-2005, 07:13 AM
college kid college kid is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 40
Default Hillary for president at 6:1

I found Hillary at +600 for being president next term, and after going through online and seeing a bunch of stuff and what people think about her chances of running and so on and so forth, I really think this might be a good bet. But I don't know exactly what goes into running and winning and how likely it is that something will make her not run, or not win (though if she runs, I can't imagine she won't win). Anybody who is good with props have any advice on Hillary at +600? I think it's +EV, but I don't have much experience in getting a true value for this type of thing.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-02-2005, 08:29 AM
Double Down Double Down is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 0
Default Re: Hillary for president at 6:1

you might want to post this in sports betting.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-02-2005, 12:21 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Hillary for president at 6:1

It could be good value. Where'd you find this?
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-02-2005, 01:10 PM
Wake up CALL Wake up CALL is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 1,591
Default Re: Hillary for president at 6:1

You should only take this bet so that you can lay it off with better odds immediately following the Democratic convevtion. Her true odds of ever winning are probably closer to 15 to 1. Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-02-2005, 01:21 PM
henrikrh henrikrh is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 312
Default Re: Hillary for president at 6:1

[ QUOTE ]
You should only take this bet so that you can lay it off with better odds immediately following the Democratic convevtion. Her true odds of ever winning are probably closer to 15 to 1. Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.

[/ QUOTE ]

Her true odds are probably 30:1, she's not a bad candidate but equality hasn't come that far, being a woman is a huge handicap.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-02-2005, 03:27 PM
Jeffage Jeffage is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,047
Default Re: Hillary for president at 6:1

[ QUOTE ]
Also you need to be sure there is no action if she doesn't even run or loses the Democratic nomination.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, I guarantee all bets have action regardless.

Jeff
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 12-02-2005, 09:14 PM
henrikrh henrikrh is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 312
Default Re: Hillary for president at 6:1

I give it 10:1 that Barrack Obama wins it in 2012.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 12-03-2005, 06:05 PM
Siegmund Siegmund is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 415
Default Re: Hillary for president at 6:1

Sounds to me like the big winner here is the bookie, who can sell both sides of this bet today and then hold your money interest free for three full years.

As for the actual odds...6:1 is about where I'd expect her chances to be if she actually gets the nomination and is up against any of the usual male republican suspects.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 12-03-2005, 08:15 PM
MCS MCS is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 143
Default Re: Hillary for president at 6:1

My analysis:

At Pinnacle, she's +109 to get the nomination, and the Democrats are -106 to win the election. (I'm going to be sort of thinking of these as +100 each because I'm doing the calculations in my head.)

Now we can't just multiply probabilities and conclude she's about 3-1 to win the presidency, because the two events are not independent. However, if 6-1 is a fair price, then it means Hillary is about 30% to win the presidency if nominated. (50% x 30% = 15% which is about 6-1.)

Then, because the Dems are -106 to win the presidency, this means non-Hillary Dems must have around a 70% chance of winning the presidency if nominated.

If you think other Democrats would actually be this much stronger than Hillary, it's a bad bet. If you don't think so, then it's a good bet.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 12-04-2005, 11:51 AM
Easy E Easy E is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 1,449
Default Re: Hillary for president at 6:1

I'd fade that bet, myself. I see her as a double-digit dog.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:24 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.