Advice on this AK hand, please

[napawino]

This hand has been bugging me because although I’m still learning something every week, this is the first time in a while I was “conceptually confused” in a while. I have to admit that I really had no reads on the players at this time. I showed down a winner to double up but none of the 4 had done anything to really tell me how they play to this point.

PokerStars $30 Multi – 20 minutes in
~540 people started; ~480 remain
Blinds 15/30
Hero has T$4000; average is ~T$1700
Hero in the BB with AKos
MP: $2000
MP+1: $2000
Button: $1000

Folded to MP, who makes it $90 (3BB)
MP+1 calls
Folded to button who raises $410 to $500 (putting ½ his stack in the pot)
What should be my action?

My thoughts: (Again, I’m very conflicted)
Obviously I like AK, but the action by 3 other players confuses me a little.. Of course this isn’t the WSOP, so a wider array of hands are possible than you might see in a bigger buy-in.
Button: In my experience on PS at this limit, A 14BB raise here normally means JJ, QQ, or maybe KK from a decent player. From a bad player this usually signals 55-99. (Does this match other’s experiences?)
Of course the 14BB raise was also ½ his stack – making me really scratch my head about what hand he would bet like this but not leave enough to protect on the flop

MP: I’m assuming a typical raising hand when first in from MP. (99 & up?)
MP+1: At this limit we could be looking at suited connectors 9T-KQ, almost any PP if he’s loose, or maybe AJ, AQ. Probably not AK.

Again, this varies a lot site-to-site & depending on the buy-in, but how are these assumptions?

What to do?
Do I raise to try to isolate? Potentially bringing along a monster from the players remaining to act?
Do I just call? If so, what do I do on a blank flop? (Assuming that a hit flop is more obvious. Is it?)
Do I fold?

All thoughts welcome.

Thanks,

-Napawino

[nate1729]

I'd fold here. Normally I'm all about getting lots of chips in with decent edges early in a tournament, but you have very little folding equity (the reraiser is calling preflop if you push,) your AK is of dubious value (hard to imagine a situation where you're not at least a slight dog to the reraiser,) you're out of position, and there's some reason to believe that one or more of your pair cards is dead. Like you say -- with better reads on the players, there are cases where moving in is right, but I think this is a fold. Good play.

[UOPokerPlayer]

Good laydown. At the 30 dollar buy in you run into less crazy gamblers. At a 5 dollar i'd probably push it. I've seen people play aa-qq that way, i have no idea why. You have little invested and a big stack to lay waste to your competition in future hands. Don't lose that weapon on what is at best 45% to win.

[JJNJustin]

You should have folded. You are not the favorite to win the hand, and there is almost no chance that the $500 raise guy will lay down his hand, seeing as he put 1/2 his stack on the raise. You are either beat by AA or KK or you are are a slight underdog 46/54 or whatever. Also since there were other raises in early position, there is a decent chance some of your outs (A/K) are already out in the players cards, meaning you are even more of and underdog.
The only real value to going all-in on AK is if you are on a short stack or if you have a good chance of stealing the pot before the flop. Since neither is the case, you should have folded. Calling would be the worst play, since he will out-flop you (assuming he holds a pair) 2/3 times and you will be inclined to fold if he bets the rest of his money on the flop. The only way I would call his raise or move all-in is if I had a short stack
less than his original raise say like 300 chips or something. In this case I would need to double up to stay in the tournament anyway, and unless he has AA you're not in terrible shape. You're hoping you are a coin toss and can get lucky. But otherwise, you should fold.

-J


-J