3/6 6m KTs turn semibluff

jason_t · #1 08-31-2005, 10:17 PM

UTG is same 52/15/2 villain from AA hand.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 2 folds, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.00 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.00 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, Button folds, SB calls, Hero raises

baronzeus · #2 08-31-2005, 10:20 PM

Why? Even if he doesn't have an ace you are drawing to somewhere between 8 and 16 outs here. There just isn't enough equity 3 way to make it worth it.

This is all if you aren't drawing dead (OK, to one out) already.

Semi-bluffing LAGs is not a good way to make money.

How many times does someone put in a bet then fold for one more, especially SB who has called? This wouldn't be horrible heads up but 3way with some SB who has stuck around two streets you have almost 0 fold equity here.

Plus the lag will call you with a J here, especially if he has a hand like KJ with outs.

Jake (The Snake) · #3 08-31-2005, 10:24 PM

I don't like it mainly because of SB's call. It's really doubtful you win this pot on the turn.I don't think you have the best hand+draw enough to be doing it for value.

It is good since it represents an ace, but I'd prefer a better spot.

jason_t · #4 08-31-2005, 10:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why? Even if he doesn't have an ace you are drawing to somewhere between 8 and 16 outs here. There just isn't enough equity 3 way to make it worth it.

This is all if you aren't drawing dead (OK, to one out) already.

Semi-bluffing LAGs is not a good way to make money.

[/ QUOTE ]

I might have the best hand; I might get a J to fold. SB clearly doesn't have an A and the LAG probably doesn't.

baronzeus · #5 08-31-2005, 10:28 PM

The difference between this hand and the AA hand is that you need to be right much more often here than in the AA hand. The other problem is if either player calls you you have to check/fold the river since you are beaten if they bet. And you certainly can't bet if they call your turn raise.

15% isn't a huge raising range either; it's slightly less than what I raise.

I don't know what the hostility is for. You play a very marginal hand strongly here against a semi-LAG who raised UTG, and you have 3 broadway cards to deal with, and SB is sticking around for some reason. Even if it worked this time, he probably folded a much worse hand (66-99). It just simply won't work in the long run.

jason_t · #6 08-31-2005, 11:04 PM

Not sure why the converter messed up the pot sizes. The pot is 6.00 BB when I raised the turn.

#7 09-01-2005, 02:22 AM

I'm putting villain on something like KJs or QJs. He might have the boat too (AJ or JJ), especially with the raise UTG. Am I wrong in putting him on such a range? Possibly results oriented?

Anyway, the bluff is good. You're getting 6:1 when you call, and villain's VPIP makes me believe you're getting implied odds to make that raise. With 2 + 4 + 8 = 14 outs (Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] counted once, so only 8 diamonds), this raise works.

The more I read this hand, the more I like that bluff. The only hands villain beats you with are AA, AJ or JJ. This bluff goes a long way to determining what he holds.

-AC

Buck_65 · #8 09-01-2005, 02:25 AM

If the SB had folded the turn, I'd love it. Unfortunately, that is not the case, and I think this is spewing most of the time. I have no data or analysis to back this up, so it's just speculation.

SGS · #9 09-01-2005, 02:29 AM

What do you think that UTG will fold that you are currently behind? Seems to me like he is calling you down with a J or pocket pair higher than J, 3 betting an A and folding pocket pair under a 10. I don't really think I like it that much.

SGS

wackjob · #10 09-01-2005, 02:37 AM

I like this play vs. 1 villain only.