Down about 200BB within past week - is this why?

[J_B]

I'm down almost 200 BB or so within the past week. I am still way way up overall, so this isn't affecting me much. But I am finding that I may be on subtle tilt. Or not? I'm not certain.

That brings me to this. These are 2 hands which have been a common occurance to me lately. How am I doing here, am I playing wrong? Any input is greatly appreciated. Bpth of these occured within 1 orbit. And these types of situations have been happening to me almost every time I get a decent hand lately (or so it seems!)

Sorry, no reads because I really don't have any myself.

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (12 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds.

Turn: (7.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

River: (13.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB


Thanks,
JB

[milesdyson]

Hand 1 is fine, dude. Almost 99% of the time you're splitting - you have to call the turn with your flush draw + top two and you have a full house on the river.

Hand 2 check call the river. He has AJ (okay maybe not, but that 4 almost never improves your hand over whatever he has).

[scotty34]

Hand 1 looks pretty standard to me. Losing to quads is not going to cause a 200BB downswing. If that's not the case, I wouldn't raise the river anyways, b/c you are likely looking at a chop. No sense paying more to the rake.

Why did you bet the river on hand 2? Did you think he had A2 or J2 and his 2-pair just got counterfeited? I would check-call this river, as you certainly don't want it raised back to you. Betting certainly won't fold him.

[atnels]

You're fine. I'm not sure why you bet the river on hand #2 though.

[CourtesyFlush]

Hand 1 looks good, probably splitting.

Hand 2 not sure about the river stop and go, UTG seems to be telling you that he can beat top pair, and MP3 coldcalled 2 on the turn. May want to check/call here.

[J_B]

I hand #2 I honestly felt that I was probably ahead and that he had something like KJ, etc. But, maybe I am being over confident.

Honestly, I have been losing well over 2/3 (probably a good 75%) of the time in these situations within the past week. Moreso with people hitting 2 outers on the river and other truely bizarre beats(I recall an AA that was cracked by a 33 on the river; etc.) I could fill the forum with these scenarios.

I know much of it is variance, but I think no matter I need to take a serious look at my game after a sudden dive down like this.

[scotty34]

Well if you thought you were ahead, why did you not raise the turn? You would be giving him a free draw to hit his K if he had KJ.

[Catt]

No new comments on the hands. But:

[ QUOTE ]
I know much of it is variance, but I think no matter I need to take a serious look at my game after a sudden dive down like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

It takes discipline, but you should doing regular reviews of your play, whether winning, losing, or treading water. For one thing, you learn a lot about your own game; for another, you can identify play patterns of your opponents and make great notes for use when playing real-time.

But in the context of downswing reviews, you'll quite likely find a bunch of bad / questionable plays. This can induce some over-corrections and create a real lack of confidence. Had you been doing regular reviews of all your hands (even your hot streaks), you'd also find a bunch of bad / questionable plays. Knowing that these plays come during both bad and good runs greatly lessens the "shock" value sometimes encountered when someone's first careful review comes in the midst of a confidence-sapping swing. Not to mention that, running good or bad, you can't work on mistakes if you don't identify them first.

[J_B]

Here are 2 more hands thatto me seem to be a bit more questionable. Maybe not?

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $1.50.
UTG (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (6 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB

[bottomset]

i think ppl are too quick to assume its variance, sure if you are a proven winner over a 50k+ stretch then ya it likely is, if you've played less than that, there's a fair chance reality is catching up to you and the hot streak is over