Bad AK Call?

[petvan]

PP 30+3 with 1100 in, down to 51. Av stack about 19k and I have 35k at a table where I cover all but 2.

Blinds 1k/2k, I pick up AKo third to act and open for 6k. Folds to big stack who is two off button or so, and he pushes for 40+, folded back to me.

I'm don't have much of a read, but figure he might be out for my chips here playing a wider range that normal as the table is full of shorties with M's under 5, and my open is near the standard steal size on the table.

Anyway, I figure that I need 100k or so for the FT and I might be dominating or racing quite likely here so I call.

I'm not certain though if it is wise to toil with the big stack with a hand like AK vs a reraise? A laydown leaves with with an above average stack while losing leaves me out.

Anyone else call here?

[unglee]

Depends on your image. If you've been aggressive and stealing, I might call this. But if you've been picking your spots pretty carefully, and the other big stack seem solid, I don't see how you can make this call for all your chips when you are at best a coinflip--I don't think most solid players are making this move with AQ.

[Matador225]

I reluctantly make the call. Your probably looking at a mid-high pp. Just hope to get lucky.

[betgo]

You have to call. You are getting over 1.5-1 pot odds. You only have 17xBB to begin with, so you generally have to go with a hand this strong. You are OK except against KK-AA. Reraiser could have AQ, AK, or weaker high cards, as well as pp. If you fold AK to a reraise, I would reraise you every time.

[petvan]

This was my thinking as well and I called and lost to KK. Not a bad beat, but pushing every +ev call into big stacks will get you busted, and I'm just not sure how much i should read into a reraise from another stack at this time.

clearly, he doesn't want to play me for all my chips unless he has a monster, but as well he knows I won't call w/o a monster and I have been a little active picking on the shorties.

P

You are only getting 1.3 to 1 pot odds. I could see the big stack pushing your early raise with 3 possible ranges.

The tightest range would be AA, KK, QQ or JJ. If these are the only hands he would push over the top with, then your EV of your call is -5694 chips.

If we add in AK to this range, because AK is going to be in his hand 1/3rd of the time and we can assume a chop if that is the case (19k chips each), then your call becomes positive EV: 2528 chips.

If you have a read that villain would also push over the top with AQ, the EV of your call skyrockets to 8173 chips.

Without a specific read on the big stack raiser, I would say 25% of the time he has the tightest range for reraises, 50% of the time he has the middle range, and 25% of the time he has the loosest range. Given these assumptions, the EV of your call against a typical big stack reraiser is about 1884.

I think you have an edge here, but it's very slight. Whether to call or raise would seem to depend on whether you think folding will allow you to find a bigger edge in the future. Of course, if you have the slightest inkling that the big stack could be coming over the top of you with air, a call is mandatory.