TT flops set vs. semi-lag blind stealer

[sethypooh21]

Villain is about 52/13/1.5, has shown an ability to overplay hands... on the flop I went for the Bet/3-bet and whiffed, the turn I went for the CR and whiffed, whilst the river was gin...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (5.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.16 BB

[kidcolin]

Too bad on the wiff, but I like your river play. I doubt he has the straight. Probably just top pair.

[New001]

I'm never checking that turn, I think.

[wackjob]

When he smooth calls your flop bet you must lead the turn. You have him scared and exactly what happened is going to happen the majority of the time. When you get raised on this flop you have a choice: smooth call &amp; go for a turn C/R or 3-bet the flop.

[sethypooh21]

I may have missed a bet, but I feel I have him drawing completly dead a lot. Will he call a bet with Ax or KQ? I probably should have added in the OP that if he was at all observant, he would have seen me playing draws very aggressively in similar spots...

[New001]

Any J, any 8, and spades all have outs against you. None of those can be discounted because he's a LAG on a blind steal, his capping range can be huge. If he's got two overcards that miss, there's a good chance he won't call a river bet but will on the turn.

You got lucky that he decided to go crazy on his ace.

[sethypooh21]

He's probably betting any J, certainly any 8 or overpair, so I can CR and charge any draw the max...

[wackjob]

Your thinking is flawed. You give a free card to a guy on a draw, he is going to take the FREE card. Not betting the turn was a mistake unless you are VERY certain he will bet when checked to. Obviously by making this post you weren't certain at all.

[sethypooh21]

A fair point, but which is more likely in this spot considering his lagness: he has a draw AND won't bet, or he's drawing dead and will overplay the river if he catches a bit? If he's drawing dead and misses the river, I only lose the fraction of the bet from the times he would call me on the turn... Also, I might make that up the times he calls with A-hi when I lead at a blank river (him thinking I missed my draw...)

I'm not categorically stating that you are wrong, I just feel that there is a little bit more going on here. Or maybe I just have too much time on my hands...

[marching_on_together]

The thing is he will likely call a turn bet anyway. If he has JJ QQ and decided to wait to the turn you may well lose a bet by not leading as he might not 3-bet while you of course will.