3/6 -- value bet river?

[detruncate]

After a goodly break, Operation Suck Less has begun. As such, I'm going to try to be much more active on this forum. Please feel free to call me out or level creative insults in my general direction as is deemed necessary and/or entertaining.

First 3/6 session in a while. I only have a couple orbits worth of stats on UTG, but know essentially nothing other than that he's played maybe 40% of his hands in 2.5 orbits and has and shown a little aggression pf but next to none post flop. SB is unknown.


Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font>

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, UTG calls.

I was a bit unsure about this since I didn't have much info about UTG's raising standards.

Flop: (10.00 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Overcards + BD flush draw + very weak BD straight draw getting 12:1 closing the action. Anyone like a raise?

Turn: (6.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, UTG calls.

Seems to be a reasonable chance I'm ahead with the lack of either flop or turn aggression from UTG -- he probably raises an overpair on the flop unless he's waiting for the turn and chickens out when the A falls, and there's a good chance a big A raises the turn unless he's super passive.

SB might have a 2, but his pf CC out of the SB + fastplay would tend to make this unlikely for an average player. 45 is possible I guess if he's loose. Maybe a flush draw. Maybe a medium pair or a 3. You'd think the A might dissuade him from betting given the PF action unless he's not worried about it, but he could also be aggressive or tricky or clueless.

River: (12.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero ???

SB probably pays me off with any made hand he called the turn with. 45 is fairly unlikely after he doesn't 3-bet the turn, and I think he also 3-bets with trips most of the time (and probably won't raise the river since he didn't unless he's sneaky tricky).

Again, UTG probably pays me off with any made hand I'm ahead of once he called the turn. He's also more likely to have a made hand than a draw I think. I don't want to see an Ace as I'm probably going to be outkicked unless he's very aggressive pf. The question seems to be whether he calls the turn with PPs or only with Aces and draws.

Can we find a value bet here vs these players?

Thanks in advance. Apologies if this is obvious, I'm reevaluating my river play.