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  #31  
Old 12-05-2005, 08:20 PM
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Default Re: Hand ranges

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http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...page=0&vc=1

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As a detailed post analysis, I certainly agree.

In the 15 seconds I have to do hand analysis during a play, I simply make lumps of hands. Most are usually divisible by four, so I simplify the lumps further. AK = 4, TT = 3.

If those are the only 2 hands, it's roughly 60% likely I'm ahead...
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  #32  
Old 12-05-2005, 08:25 PM
Spicymoose Spicymoose is offline
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Default Re: Hand ranges

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...page=0&vc=1

[/ QUOTE ]

As a detailed post analysis, I certainly agree.

In the 15 seconds I have to do hand analysis during a play, I simply make lumps of hands. Most are usually divisible by four, so I simplify the lumps further. AK = 4, TT = 3.

If those are the only 2 hands, it's roughly 60% likely I'm ahead...

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I guess we disagree on the playing habits of our opponents then. Lets just assume for the sake of simplicity that there are 12 combos of AK, and 12 combos of PP. I cannot, and will not say that these two holdings are equally plausable. In this hand, I think he would play AK at least twice as often as the PP here.

Although using 100% is fine, if you are able to drop the possibility of something, it really can be helpful for getting a more correct analysis. Using 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% is perfectly fine, and way more accurate then saying "He could have 22, so 6 combos, he couldn't have 33, so 0 combos", when in reality, he only has 22 50% of the time, and has 33 10% of the time.
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  #33  
Old 12-05-2005, 09:00 PM
krishanleong krishanleong is offline
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Default Re: Big pot with 88

It looks like [censored] on the surface but it's not too bad. I don't know if I have the balls to fire the turn bet. Good river bet. If you don't take into account postflop play when you weight combos of hands you should.

Krishan
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  #34  
Old 12-05-2005, 09:06 PM
scotty34 scotty34 is offline
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Default Re: Big pot with 88

What are your weightings for their likely hands? If you figure you are ahead of MP who has AK/AT, on the turn he has a minimum of 13 outs to beat you, and possibly more if he has flush cards. He could already be ahead of you with 99/TT. You could even throw in a bit of a possibility of JJ/QQ trying to slowplay or AJ who is scared of the Q.

There is also button who may have a weak Q, or 99/TT, or just made his trips - none of those are going anywhere in most cases. He could also have a flush draw or straight draw which has a ton of outs against you. Unless he bet the flop with complete air (which is unlikely for an LP), or a 6, I highly doubt he will fold the turn in most cases.

I don't mind the river bet, but the turn bet is really spewing IMO. I'm not a huge fan of the flop C/R either.
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  #35  
Old 12-05-2005, 09:30 PM
Spicymoose Spicymoose is offline
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Default Re: Big pot with 88

[ QUOTE ]
What are your weightings for their likely hands? If you figure you are ahead of MP who has AK/AT, on the turn he has a minimum of 13 outs to beat you, and possibly more if he has flush cards.

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I don't mind that he has a ton of outs, the pot is huge, and unless he tells me otherwise, I am staying in.


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He could already be ahead of you with 99/TT.

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I already have discussed these, and I don't think they are very likely given the flop action. Maybe he plays these hands like this 20% of the time?

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You could even throw in a bit of a possibility of JJ/QQ trying to slowplay

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I doubt he is slowplaying past the turn, but I guess it is possible. There are 4 combos total, and I weigh him playing like this less than 25%, so call it 1 combo.

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or AJ who is scared of the Q.

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On the flop, this is likely, once we reach the turn, and he doesn't raise, far, far less likely.

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There is also button who may have a weak Q, or 99/TT, or just made his trips - none of those are going anywhere in most cases. He could also have a flush draw or straight draw which has a ton of outs against you. Unless he bet the flop with complete air (which is unlikely for an LP), or a 6, I highly doubt he will fold the turn in most cases.

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You are right, the button is my main cause for concern. I am hoping he bet with air or a flush draw, which he may do a reasonable amount of the time. He may be passive, but the pot is big, and noone has shown interest on the flop.
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  #36  
Old 12-05-2005, 09:42 PM
scotty34 scotty34 is offline
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Default Re: Big pot with 88

I agree with most of what you said. Given the turn action, I think the river bet is not bad at all.

Sure the turn bet will work out sometimes, as it did in this case, but I really think it has to be significantly -EV. I think that Button alone is ahead of you close to 50% of the time if not more, and add that to MP's piles of outs, you are in trouble.
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  #37  
Old 12-05-2005, 10:20 PM
Spicymoose Spicymoose is offline
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Default Re: Big pot with 88

[ QUOTE ]

Sure the turn bet will work out sometimes, as it did in this case, but I really think it has to be significantly -EV. I think that Button alone is ahead of you close to 50% of the time if not more, and add that to MP's piles of outs, you are in trouble.

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I am picking at things you may not have intended here, but if the button is ahead of me 50% of the time, he takes roughly 4 BB out of the 8 BB pot. Throw in MPs 10 outs, and he takes 20% of the times I was actually ahead, so I still have about 3 whole BB of equity. I am paying 1 BB on the turn, and often when I am behind, I will hear about it. The times they don't let me know, I may pay another BB on the river, but by that point my equity has shot up.

You can tweak the numbers, but this pot is pretty big, and investing 1 BB in a 8 BB pot may not so be bad.
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  #38  
Old 12-06-2005, 01:30 AM
whodaman whodaman is offline
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Default Re: Big pot with 88

[ QUOTE ]
sppppppewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

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check folding the flop would be best. It is a large multiway pot with a q and j on the board. If any of these loose passives have a piece they are not folding. If they have a straight draw with 2 overs your equity isn't taht high either.
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