Wow, I butchered another one

[djoyce003]

I disagree. He has about 80 left and that ten scared the crap out of him I guarantee. He's valuebetting AA or KK on the river, but I think a reasonable/semi-tight player folds to a turn lead after that 10 pairs. TWP's lead on the flop looks exactly like top pair....when it pairs that pot is his. Make a bet of around the pot and he'll fold way more than half the time I think.

[passion]

I thought UTG started the hand with $65. He raised $12 pf and put another $20 in on the flop leaving him with about $33 on the turn. On the turn the pot was $55. Bottom line is that this is a bad time to bluff as the guy is surely going to call with an overpair.

These circumstances are why I said the time to fold is on the flop. If your going to call the flop raise you might as well put it all in there.

Passion

[troymclur]

Yes, you did butcher it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If you were going to call the flop (which screams an overpair), you need to bet 3/4 or more of the pot on the turn, it was the single best card you could have seen shy of another J. River is an easy fold.

[djoyce003]

you are right, my bad, I was thinking it was the SB left. He probably isn't folding no matter what then.

[wtfsvi]

Why not check call the flop? That should help you when SB has AA and is going for his oh-so-incredibly-stupid-checkraise. You should probably count on the aggressive UTG taking a stab on a big pot like this most of the time when it's checked to him. Then lead the turn and check fold the river.