($27) Facing a BIG pot steal & AJo behind

bluefeet · #1 09-13-2005, 12:58 PM

Some assumptions:
- Seat 9 IS in fact making a move on this pot [bastard stole my push]
- Seat 5&6 have been limping, non-stop since L1
- Seat 5&6 WILL fold to a push (they both have on more than one occasion)
- Blinds will be increasing in <1min

Can/Do you make this call?

25+2 turbo
Seat 1: (1255 in chips)
<font color="blue">bluefeet (1040 in chips) </font>
Seat 3: (1685 in chips)
Seat 5: (2420 in chips)
Seat 6: (2115 in chips)
Seat 7: (1580 in chips)
Seat 8: (1750 in chips)
Seat 9: (1655 in chips)
Seat 1: posts small blind 75
bluefeet: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bluefeet [Ac Jh]
1 fold
Seat 5: calls 150
Seat 6: calls 150
2 folds
Seat 9: raises 1505 to 1655 and is all-in .....[t1415 pot available to me]
1 fold
bluefeet: ???

** No peeking before you reply! **
<font color="white">
bluefeet calls 890 and is all-in
2 folds
*** FLOP *** [Kd 2h Qc]
*** TURN *** [Kd 2h Qc] [Ks]
*** RIVER *** [Kd 2h Qc Ks] [5c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
bluefeet: shows [Ac Jh] (a pair of Kings)
Seat 9: shows [4d Ah] (a pair of Kings - lower kicker)

</font>

kyro · #2 09-13-2005, 01:12 PM

Well I had a response typed out which was basically saying I hate your assumption that Seat 9 is trying to steal the pot. But then I looked at the rest of the information (blinds et. al) and realized you're really damned if you do, damned if you don't. I call the push and hope to flip I guess.

splashpot · #3 09-13-2005, 02:11 PM

Maybe I'm wrong, but I fold this pretty fast. I'd just wait for a chance to steal myself.

Roland32 · #4 09-13-2005, 02:29 PM

I think this is a great time to call. You are short stacked with a good hand blinds are about to go up. You put villain on a move, go for it.

Rduke55 · #5 09-13-2005, 02:29 PM

Trust your reads.

ZeroPointMachine · #6 09-13-2005, 02:38 PM

All the extra factors add up to a pretty easy call I think. But where would you draw the line?

The Yugoslavian · #7 09-13-2005, 02:42 PM

I've played quite a few $27 turbos in the last few days and think the good news is that a weak ace will show up a bunch here (weak aces are way overvalued...I'm thinkin' even moreso than on Party). I sorta like this play even though your hand is a bit weak. You really need to accumulate some chips and it will be somewhat tricky in the near future to do so (you basically need to get a push in next hand or so unless you can find a monster).

What I like best about all of this is you recognize that the pusher is making a play on the habitual limpers and are going to take advantage of it. All that being said I think I could easily fold if I think I can get my chips in first soon in a nice spot.

Yugoslav
PS No results....seriously.

bluefeet · #8 09-13-2005, 02:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
....But where would you draw the line?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I meant to add that question. Without reads, I think TT-JJ+,AQs+ is a pretty significant gamble - one I'd still take considering my chips and that pot.

If "they" are folding, and "he" is stealing, I think the AJo is pretty close to the line. ATs?? 99+??...that'd be my general feel i guess.

ZeroPointMachine · #9 09-13-2005, 03:02 PM

I think I could go with 99+ because your a big favorite over the A-baby hands. I don't think I can call AT here even with the reads. The Jack adds significantly to the hands you will dominate here.

docodan · #10 09-13-2005, 04:45 PM

The first thing I notice is that, given the assumptions, there's 1/2 stack worth of dead chips in the pot when you call. Can you reasonably expect future fold equity--minus the chance that someone beats you into the pot when you're in good position--to be greater than these dead chips? (I'm really asking.)