Well, the pot says I'm getting 2:1....

Jimbobobb · #1 05-13-2005, 05:48 AM

Party 30 + 3

Blinds 150/300
Hero: ~2300
CO: ~2500
Button: ~2500
SB: 748

Hero is BB with Th 6s
CO Folds
Button Folds
SB pushes

Hero?

I called pretty quickly, and actually had planned on calling his allin 'almost' regardless of my cards since the last hand. A friend watching me whos opinion I respect questioned the call. I normally call when I'm getting 2:1 and I have a hand I don't think will be dominated pretty often for a small chunk of my stack....didn't really think this was some kind of leak. Am I just wrong here? If so why?

pergesu · #2 05-13-2005, 06:20 AM

Any read on this guy to give you an idea what he'll push with? I ran it through SNGPT, and it said that it's only very marginally profitable (+0.2% ev diff) if he's got maniacal standards. Looks like you'd want to pass this one up.

uphigh_downlow · #3 05-13-2005, 06:35 AM

if you accept that you are 40%on this hand, then its a losing proposition.

has a -ve EV for a call with 40% odds

barely even at 45%

Degen · #4 05-13-2005, 06:36 AM

if you're getting 2:1, its less than 1/3rd of your stack and the guy is all-in...call with any two cards...always.

also, having your friends who are good at poker watch you play SNG's is very, very -EV.

Andre

uphigh_downlow · #5 05-13-2005, 06:45 AM

I wont go into the details, but i disagree

The important factor in this situation is the relative chip standings. If chip positions were
2300
3500
1500
750

it would be a positive expectation play to call here being 40% to win the pot.

This is also quite intuitive, if you see the resulting chip positions as a result of losing/winning the pot.

curtains · #6 05-13-2005, 07:06 AM

This is a very clear call IMO, everyone who says otherwise is giving you crap advice. At WORST case its slightly +ev, and then you can take a look at some other factors and try to figure out whether its worth it, or whether you should sacrafice the EV. At best case its huge +EV (If they are pushing any 2, which some players will definitely try here), in which case you are making a huge mistake by folding.

pergesu gave an example of the EV gained against someone with maniacal standards using eastbay's powertools, however I wouldn't expect anyone to be that TIGHT - By folding you are just letting your opponents exploit you the way you try to exploit them, by pushing and hoping they fold when they shouldnt.

A good player will raise from the SB here probably over 90% of the time, because its the last chance for any semblence of FE, especially since we know that players at this level fold when they shouldn't. Don't be one of those players. It's incredible how everyone on this forum talks about how dumb the opponent's are because even when it appears you have no folding equity, the opponents fold anyway. Now the exact same thing is happening, and everyone is suggesting a fold.

uphigh_downlow · #7 05-13-2005, 07:59 AM

well i cant really argue with carpal tunnel, being a stranger myself ( and I mean that in the best possible way)

But the fold is predicated on being behind at about 40% to win the pot. 45% is almost even money.

If you have reasons to believe that your 10 high is better than that, then the answer could be different.

From the other perspective, using ICM
It also seems that the sb should push at this stage with any hand thats 40%, if he expects to get called all the time. This condition can be relaxed if he expects a fold a small percent of the time. In addition,it is important to note that short stack has to post sb next, which ICM does not take into account. As a result, he can push with much weaker holdings. (_almost_ any 2, but not quite) Since he _is_ expecting a call.

This is of course if sb is considering all these parameters.
(I'v seen sb folding here on several occasions)

Anyway i remember seeing a chart of how individual hands did against random 2 cards in showdown poker somewhere. Wonder if anyone can point those out here. Mebbe that could shed some light on how this hands plays out.

I must say that this is an interesting problem, because of the chip stacks. Am I wrong in suggesting that they play a role here? I dont know, but this sure has turned out to be an interesting problem.

For one, I wud have said easy call off the boot. But after I did some numbers, it proved more insightful than a rule of Thumb.

Any takers?

As regards not succumbing to explotation by calling, some situations lend themselves uniquely to exploitation, just by virtue of payoff structure chip stacks and or position. There is really nothing much that one can do in certain situations, except come out with the least damage. It feels to me that this is one of those. It's not about not letting them exploit you, but about adopting a strategy, that will minimize that exploitation.

curtains · #8 05-13-2005, 08:06 AM

Pretty sure your math is wrong. I think that even if we win like 35% of the time, we are +ev to call here. 40% should be clearcut.

Jimbobobb · #9 05-13-2005, 08:07 AM

Guess I just don't see how numbers are against me here....I'm putting in one third of the chips in a pot I figure to win at *least* 40% on average. Not to mention knocking out the small stack is good times. Someone point out what I'm missing?

curtains · #10 05-13-2005, 08:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Guess I just don't see how numbers are against me here....I'm putting in one third of the chips in a pot I figure to win at *least* 40% on average. Not to mention knocking out the small stack is good times. Someone point out what I'm missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

JIMBO YOU ARENT MISSING ANYTHING THIS IS AN EASY CALL! (sorry for screaming)