Do I bet this river?

[FoxwoodsFiend]

I suppose the logic of betting the pot stands if everyone at the table is completely oblivious to what's going on. The fact is there's near-perfect transparency, we both know what the other one has (except i have three possibilities) and yes, he does know I'm capable of making a laydown there with KK. If he knows I'm putting him on a set then it's a pretty easy check-raise bluff opportunity and if he moved all in I would indeed have mucked. Thus, given the possibility of him folding if I bet heavy as his read of my KK would be confirmed and the fact that he could easily push me off KK here, I don't understand how people are still advocating such large bets. ML4L is right on this one, and I suppose that at a low enough level of play it always makes sense to get your chips in here but villain and I are both good enough that you just can't say "I'm willing to put 9k in to this pot and hope that all he has is 99 or 22 and if I go broke, well-I couldn't have done anything about it. I mean, full house versus quads never happens, right?"

[FoxwoodsFiend]

AJo and petefabrizio-I don't know who you two are but if you think I'm such a pussy I'll play you heads-up any time for any amount of money.

[edtost]

i still think that if you can't be happy making a pot-sized value bet vs. him with the second nuts, when its 6-1 that you're ahead based on a read, you shouldn't have bought this deep.

[AJo Go All In]

[ QUOTE ]
AJo and petefabrizio-I don't know who you two are but if you think I'm such a pussy I'll play you heads-up any time for any amount of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

well, i think you're probably joking, but i do know who you are, and i know for a fact that you won't.

[River2Pair]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate it. $500 smells so weak that he could re-raise all-in here and put you to the test. I think you left money on the table here because of this fear of quads.

But what do I know, I don't try to make the Hellmuthian laydowns...

Sly

[/ QUOTE ]

I seem to remember hearing about a hand where Hellmuth paid off Tobey MacGuire with KK on a AAAxx board in some tournament. So I don't even think Phil would lay this one down.

[etizzle]

well, i saw phil lay down an ace on a 66A6A board at UB. And he was right.

[etizzle]

I think the math here is easy. Say you bet 2000, and he calls with 22 and 99, and raises all in with 44. There are 6 ways he can have 22 and 99, and 1 way he can have 44.

(6*2000 - 1*7300)/7= $671

So even if you only bet 2000 (the pot is like 3000), and you call every time he moves in, you still come out up 671 on average.

And there's no way hes folding 22 or 99 for 2000 on the river after he called off 1000 in a 500 dollar pot. No way.

[blueballer23]

Wow. Great thread. Worth popping my cherry I think....

If Villain knows you have kk why would he call your bet with a one outer? Either there is considerable doubt or he's looking for a chance to bluff the river. The river either gave him his quads or gave him his chance to bluff. If he called for a chance to bluff, then won't he bluff that card just about every time since he is 100% certain you have kk and are capable of letting it go? If thats the case, you should check every time. Why make a weak bet that screams "I'm gonna fold if you raise enough."

How many of us would call an overbet with a one outer unless they were going to try and steal if another two or four hits? If he is that tricky then check behind.

On the other hand, I think Villain has serious doubts about your holdings. For that reason you bet more, especially since he has a problem letting go of hands.

So, it depends on your read of Villain. Would he call for a chance to bluff(giving him six more outs)? If not, he's not sure about your kk and he's paying off a decent bet the six out of seven times that his quads don't hit.

Well, my brain hurts and I don't think that solved anything.

[SwordFish]

Hi ML4L -

Regarding stack size in relation to the blinds. As you stated, the stacks are extremely deep. However, I do not think it is fair to compare this situation to a 1/2 player playing with a $2700 dollar stack. The players involved in this hand seem to be higher stake players playing a lower stake game, rather than two guys who placed their entire bankrolls on the table and are playing with scared money.

[ QUOTE ]
So, why assume that UTG would gladly call $2000 here with his boat?

[/ QUOTE ]


1. The OP stated that his opponent has trouble laying down a hand. This tells me that UTG would call more than 34.1 % needed in your example.

2. If UTG really believed hero had KK and he is capable of laying down a hand, he would have done it on the turn when he believed he only had one out.

The 4 on the turn made it much more likely UTG is holding 99 or 22. I would make the $2000 bet and be confident I would be called.


SF

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm worried about exposing myself to a check-raise here-should i bet this river and if so, how much?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exposing yourself to a checkraise? Okay, I'll humor you on that one. what is is like 5 or 6-1 that he has Quads? More likely given your read that he has 99 or 22. And for what its worth, He really puts you on KK? and CALLED the $1000.00 turn bet? WHY?

If you're scared get a dog, and bet two stacks of green. Though I probably bet between a dime and $1500.00 to assure that I get a call.