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#1
06-25-2005, 06:52 PM
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how not to do it, by elysium.
hi everyone,
live 10-20; non-bluffing regulars who like to call a little too much, a few good players, etc. i have KK in the SB, and raise an 8-way. the flop comes Q72 monotone none suit. i betout, it's called in 3 spots, the MP raises, and it's cold-called in two spots to me. i fold. my thinking at the time was that i would need perfect, perfect to win, and that even if the MP didn't have the flush, one of the callers on my left did. added to this was the possibility of the fourth flush card landing on either the turn or the river, and that the calling station type players on my left would not fold with any flush draw if i reraised either on the flop, or a check-raise of the turn. well, on the showdown, of course my KK would have been good. in retrospect, i should have put the MP on a raise with the lone A suit at a greater frequency than i initially did. i just didn't think he was making this type a raise enough times to warrant a reraise. what caused me to fold, however, was the large field of calling station types on my right and left, who i thought might be calling with a completed lower flush. and i knew hat the fourth flush card landing would not allow me to foldout any hand that i was trailing. so i folded. my main mistake, i think, was in betting out. i betout to make the draws pay, but against this many in the field, that was wrong, IMO after the fact. my best chance of taking down this pot would have been to check-raise the A of suit, allowing the A of suit to initiate the action. i just never really thought this one through before, and that thought never occurred to me at the table. now though, that is what i should have done. my betout actually cost me the pot because, while it does make the draws pays, betting out in this spot provides your thinking opponent who likes to get fancy with ammo that backfires on you when he makes a fancy play. it's better to check and wait to see what happens, and that's what i should have done. all comments appreciated. 
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#3
06-25-2005, 07:30 PM
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Re: how not to do it, by elysium.
[ QUOTE ]
Where or how do you draw the line that helps you to decide when betting this flop is correct, and when checking and waiting to see is correct? [/ QUOTE ] where the As is likely to be. -Barron
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#4
06-25-2005, 07:30 PM
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Re: how not to do it, by elysium.
interesting post although i cringed when you wrote "i folded" on the flop.
i think its not a bad idea to call the flop raise and bet the turn since people w/ K/A of the suit can raise pretty clearly. if it was a faily passive game and you bet and it was called in 2 spots then raised and rereaised i think thats a fold. but here im seeing a non spade showdown in all likelihood. had you not written that you folded i never would have even considered it an option. as to a flop checkraise, it depends where you think the A would be...since ealy position limipers tend to be tighter than late position limpers i'd lay odds (albeit slim ones) that the As, if out there, would be in the early limper's hands (the "if out there" is a qeustion in and of itself though since the pot was unraised till it got to you unless its a very passive game). so the C'R idea isn't too good IMO unless you KNOW for some reason that the As is to your right somehow. also, checking isn't too great b/c you may feel the need to fold for 2 back if its bet and raised where yous hould probably 3 bet...but i wouldn't want to put 3 bets here on this flop. against the limpers and the raises though, after you bet, you should definately call and its easy to give up when and if the spade hits. -Barron
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#5
06-25-2005, 07:41 PM
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Re: how not to do it, by elysium.
I often hear people say that they'll "bet to see where they're at". At first it sounded like a good idea, and then I read something from TJ Cloutier that said "if I wanna know where i'm at, I check and see what happens". I tried that too, it works much better, at least for me.
I really like you anaylsis of the hand, and wonder if, even though you would have won a showdown, your fold was still correct. I'm not very good at advanced poker math, but isn't this one of those "reverse implied odds" situations? You may already be beat, and the chance of you ending up with the best hand in an 8 way field with that board can't be very high. I don't know how to work the numbers, maybe somebody thats advanced w/ pokerstove can figure it out, but i'm thinking that if your fold was wrong, it probably wasn't wrong by much. Nice hand. lf
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#8
06-26-2005, 12:33 AM
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Re: how not to do it, by elysium.
[ QUOTE ]
This is definitely not a good fold. Now if it was 8-9-10 monotone then i think we have something to talk about. [/ QUOTE ] I find your statement of "what" interesting...where's the why? lf
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#9
06-26-2005, 01:07 AM
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Re: how not to do it, by elysium.
hi dpr
usually, this is true. however, that type flop against AA or KK is very rare. when you have a large passive multi-way, and a regular raises into a field of calling type opponents, the monotone starts assuming consecutive suited characteristics, and you start thinking the worst. i should have let him get checked to, and then check-raised.
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#10
06-26-2005, 01:54 AM
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Re: how not to do it, by elysium.
[ QUOTE ]
i should have let him get checked to, and then check-raised. [/ QUOTE ] There's no reason to anticipate that a bet will come from an LP player rather than an EP player. And if EP bets, then your c/raise doesn't knock anyone out. Plus, a c/raise risks giving a free card to the field. So, why is a c/r better than betting out?
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