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#1
09-23-2005, 01:58 PM
 r3vbr Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 75
Probability of dying (no poker content)

When parachute-jumping off a plane

When bunjee jumping
When riding a bike
Travelling by plane

anyone know a website with tehse stats?

thanks
#2
09-23-2005, 05:19 PM
 BruceZ Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,636
Re: Probability of dying (no poker content)

[ QUOTE ]
When parachute-jumping off a plane

When bunjee jumping
When riding a bike
Travelling by plane

anyone know a website with tehse stats?

thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

I read a couple of these stats in an article about thrill-seeking in Men's Health magazine about 15 years ago. Parachute jumping was listed at 1 death per 100,000 jumps, with most of the deaths being caused by the plane crashing since that tended to kill everyone (I don't know why they didn't use their chutes). Bungee jumping is extremely safe if run by certified individuals. I believe it is comparable to roller coasters which are 1 death per 100 million rides. Hang gliding was listed as 1 death in 4000 flights per year.

Large commercial airliners have very safe records with death rates of 1 in some millions, but smaller charter planes can be much more dangerous, at least an order of magnitude and perhaps more than one order of magnitude, even when they appear to bear the name of a large airline.

I found a stat for driving in the US in this article as 1.5 deaths per 100 million miles driven. Here are some more odds of dying in various ways.
#3
09-23-2005, 05:39 PM
 Guest Posts: n/a
Re: Probability of dying (no poker content)

are you suppost to be doing all this at once?, because if so, i would say your chances are pretty big!!!
#4
09-23-2005, 05:43 PM
 UATrewqaz Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Atlanta Posts: 276
Re: Probability of dying (no poker content)

The sad thing is that each individual item is very unlikely but you are in ALOT of these scenarios so when you take the probability of avoiding them all, scary.
#5
09-26-2005, 08:21 AM
 The Truth Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 207
Re: Probability of dying (no poker content)

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When parachute-jumping off a plane

When bunjee jumping
When riding a bike
Travelling by plane

anyone know a website with tehse stats?

thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

I read a couple of these stats in an article about thrill-seeking in Men's Health magazine about 15 years ago. Parachute jumping was listed at 1 death per 100,000 jumps, with most of the deaths being caused by the plane crashing since that tended to kill everyone (I don't know why they didn't use their chutes). Bungee jumping is extremely safe if run by certified individuals. I believe it is comparable to roller coasters which are 1 death per 100 million rides. Hang gliding was listed as 1 death in 4000 flights per year.

Large commercial airliners have very safe records with death rates of 1 in some millions, but smaller charter planes can be much more dangerous, at least an order of magnitude and perhaps more than one order of magnitude, even when they appear to bear the name of a large airline.

I found a stat for driving in the US in this article as 1.5 deaths per 100 million miles driven. Here are some more odds of dying in various ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plane crashes usually occur on take off or landing, not in mid air, so no time to open a chute.

-blake
#6
09-26-2005, 10:57 AM
 Abbaddabba Junior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 25
Re: Probability of dying (no poker content)

The problem with using data from the past is that it'll rarely be a perfectly representative sample of what you can expect.

If you're trying to assess what _your_ probability of dying would be if you were to bungee jump, it's probably a lot lower than the stated statistic. The simple fact that you're concerning yourself with the probability of death means you're going to be going about it in the safest possible way through certified experts, where the risk of death is far lower than it is for the average jumper.

Plane safety has also advanced a lot over the years, so factoring old data into the equation could provide an unrepresentative sample of what the true risk of flying is to passengers of today.
#7
09-26-2005, 06:36 PM
 r3vbr Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 75
Re: Probability of dying (no poker content)

ok so most fears people have are not based by facts/logic. but can you give me an example of a widely accepted activity in wich the risk is GREATER than what people think it is. let's say eating certain food, or doing certain sport.

something that's way more likely to kill you that was you would normally have guessed

i can't think of any (i think cause people are so afraid of everything nowadays).
#8
09-26-2005, 09:26 PM
 AaronBrown Senior Member Join Date: May 2005 Location: New York Posts: 505
Re: Probability of dying (no poker content)

This may not be quite what you mean, but while people tend to overestimate the risk of doing something once, they tend to underestimate the risk of continuing to do it. For example, an extraordinary number of serious mountain climbers die climbing mountains. I recall one study giving a rate of 60% for serious Alpine climbers. Drivers with certain characteristics are also more likely than not to be killed while driving. It's not so bad for recreational Scuba divers and hobby pilots, but it's signficant.

Bungee jumping or skydiving is something you might do once, just for the thrill. But driving sports cars fast or climbing mountains takes too much training for one shot. If you decide on these activities, you're betting a good portion of your life.
#9
09-27-2005, 11:26 AM
 Abbaddabba Junior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 25
Re: Probability of dying (no poker content)

Motor vehicle deaths is a big thing that, while it may be known by some, is largely overlooked.

The per mile death rate is negligable, but when you drive fifty thousand miles a year, it adds up.

If you drive in cities or urban areas, your risk of death is even higher than the equivalent mile driven for rural citizens. If you're a poor driver (which you can usually use your insurance rates as a good measure of), your probability of dying per mile is even higher.

1.5/(100,000,000/50,000)

0.00075 percent chance on an annual basis for frequent drivers (ok, 50k is a lot). That's a pretty substantial figure, and that's for a typical driver. Poor drivers, and those who drive inside the city have an even higher risk of death

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