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#23
09-25-2005, 05:11 PM
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Re: additional picks.
[ QUOTE ]
Some of the bar picks are suspect. . .in the sense that there is a lot of argument in the bar about what the right play is. . .the big, known handicappers are calling this a real tough week and that is reflected in no clear cut bar stool pick... [/ QUOTE ] I guess this depends upon which bars you are going to. Nate, your selection of The Crooked Goalpost is obviously the correct place. 
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#24
09-26-2005, 01:07 AM
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Re: additional picks
Wow. Just wow. I took Carolina at -3.5 early on, because I thought they were a good bet. Looks like I'm just a BSP myself. I reluctantly put money on Raiders +8 after the first post in this thread. I missed the Indy/Cleveland thread, but would have won that.
The only other games is the KC/Den and I did pick KC+3 on that, so again, I'm with the BSPs. It'll be interesting to see if the theory holds out. Even if it doesn't, the BSP theory will be something like 10-1-1 for the first 3 weeks. By the way Natedogg, do you actually go to a bar, or where do you get the "BSP" picks from?
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#25
09-26-2005, 02:01 PM
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Re: additional picks
This just goes to show how much the "public" factor goes into these linemakers coming up wth a number. There are always juicy numbers out there and public concensus along with line movement is a great way to handicap and make selections.
I have been doing something similar with ESPN Fantasy's PigSkin Pick'Em concensus against the spread. Using the highest percentages of public action along with taking a look at the line movement and why (injury or maybe weather), I have been successfully going 4-1 or 5-1 each week. This was just a test with no money involved, but next week I am going to start putting my system to action. Actually, im going to start using this system tonight. 78% of the public is picking KC. My Denver play is looking SOLID!
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#26
09-26-2005, 10:36 PM
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Re: additional picks
[ QUOTE ]
Colts -13.5 As a lot of people have mentioned, the Colts are very popular this week. Personally, I'm sick to my stomach putting money on a team that is playing their second road game after an unexpected win at Lambeau, but the numbers don't lie. All the money is on the Colts. [/ QUOTE ] Not me, which leads me to a serious question, Nate. This game opened at Clev + 16. The betting public correctly drove it down [along with some sharp bettors] 2.5 points to 13.5! How can you tell the BSP's want the Colts, when the betting public clearly favored the Browns at 16, at 15, at 14.5 [when I got in for small finally] and at 14, until it hit 13.5 and the rest of the public [more or less?] decided they liked the Colts? confused, Naj
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#27
09-26-2005, 10:39 PM
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Re: additional picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Colts -13.5 As a lot of people have mentioned, the Colts are very popular this week. Personally, I'm sick to my stomach putting money on a team that is playing their second road game after an unexpected win at Lambeau, but the numbers don't lie. All the money is on the Colts. [/ QUOTE ] Not me, which leads me to a serious question, Nate. This game opened at Clev + 16. The betting public correctly drove it down [along with some sharp bettors] 2.5 points to 13.5! How can you tell the BSP's want the Colts, when the betting public clearly favored the Browns at 16, at 15, at 14.5 [when I got in for small finally] and at 14, until it hit 13.5 and the rest of the public [more or less?] decided they liked the Colts? confused, Naj [/ QUOTE ] I had this one opening at 13 and closing at -14 -120 or -14.5.
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#28
09-26-2005, 10:41 PM
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Re: additional picks
Kind of scarey how accurate the BSP are... How long have you been doing this nate?
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#29
09-26-2005, 10:55 PM
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Re: additional picks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Colts -13.5 As a lot of people have mentioned, the Colts are very popular this week. Personally, I'm sick to my stomach putting money on a team that is playing their second road game after an unexpected win at Lambeau, but the numbers don't lie. All the money is on the Colts. [/ QUOTE ] Not me, which leads me to a serious question, Nate. This game opened at Clev + 16. The betting public correctly drove it down [along with some sharp bettors] 2.5 points to 13.5! How can you tell the BSP's want the Colts, when the betting public clearly favored the Browns at 16, at 15, at 14.5 [when I got in for small finally] and at 14, until it hit 13.5 and the rest of the public [more or less?] decided they liked the Colts? confused, Naj [/ QUOTE ] I had this one opening at 13 and closing at -14 -120 or -14.5. [/ QUOTE ] Line opened at 16, ask anyone who follows lines closely, or call the Stardust, check online if your site keeps line histories, then dropped to 13.5, then went back up to about 14 or so depending on your book. I got the Stardust lines from last week in front of me from a friend's trip to LV, Open Indy -16. Nate's doing God's work here, so more power to him, I am just trying to understand the process. Hell, I don't care if it's 3 drunks all named Norm at the local dive if it is working this well.
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#30
09-26-2005, 11:09 PM
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Re: additional picks
According to the Offshore Connection which summarizes lines at different sportsbooks, the opening line was 13. Not trying to make a point, just reporting what I see/saw. On the other hand, late betting pushed the line from 13.5 to almost 14.5 between Friday and Sunday so I don't see how it ended at 13.5.
Ed: Ok, it sounds like you weren't saying it ended at 13.5, but that it rose from 13.5 to 14-14.5 on late public betting.
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