Late in the Tourney, Late Position, and an Ace

[juris]

Party $20 + 2. Blinds are at $2000-4000. About 50 people left.

I have $22000. UTG has me covered, but just barely, at $26000. He has been at my table for over an hour, playing semi-loose, but rarely abandoning a hand. He's gained a lot of his chips from pushing and no showdown.

UTG bets $10,000. I look down and see Ac2h. SB has a stack of $40,000, BB has a stack of 18,000. Blinds have been very tight.

I should . . .

[hurlyburly]

Fold. With no antes you still have about 30 hands. A lot can happen in 30 hands.

[Simplistic]

raise looks weak to me. my line is push or fold. i'm leaning towards fold, would prefer a better kicker

[billyjex]

Easy fold. You are so dominated by many hands here and you can pick a better spot.

[radioheadfan]

Being dominated here sucks. Since UTG hasn't let go of many hands (your folding equity is very low) this is an easy fold, and its not close. You'll find a better spot.

[yecul]

He raised to t10k with a t26k from UTG. I think he'd go along for the ride and probably has you beat. I'd drop and find a better spot.

[juris]

Purely based on stupidity and my read of this particular player-who I was sick of seeing gobble up chips that I wanted-I chose stop and go.

My thoughts: if he had a pair, he'd have pushed preflop. He might, might, have an ace but I think he'd also do this with kq, kj or garbage.

Flop comes 2c 3c 5h. Before I can push, he does.

Now I should . . .

[ilya]

Fold, he ain't folding to a push and pretty much you super-duper-bestest-case scenario is that you're a 60/40 favorite. And that's if he's got some garbage like K8o. If he's just getting a little frisky with a hand like 98s, you're hardly better than even money (52%). Yes, there's a bunch of dead money in the pot, but that doesn't make up for the fact that the large majority of the time, you'll be a 60/40 - 70/30 dog.
Folding becomes even easier when you consider that the blinds have been "very tight." I.e., you can steal blinds.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Purely based on stupidity and my read of this particular player-who I was sick of seeing gobble up chips that I wanted-I chose stop and go.

My thoughts: if he had a pair, he'd have pushed preflop. He might, might, have an ace but I think he'd also do this with kq, kj or garbage.

Flop comes 2c 3c 5h. Before I can push, he does.

Now I should . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, see, that's the problem. You can't stop-and-go unless you're first to act on the flop.

But anyway, now that you're here, you're getting better than 3:1, and besides, you desperately need this pot. Easy call, although it sucks that you have the Ace of clubs.

[gumpzilla]

I don't really understand why you think having A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] sucks; having the gutshot and backdoor draw to go with his pair should probably make up for the decreased chance that this guy is pushing a flush draw and two overs, which I doubt was that likely to begin with.