I smell a bluff... - Page 2

smoovee · #11 10-13-2005, 04:11 PM

ur probably ahead on the flop, maybe even turn. but with position, i would have checked the turn b/c i dont really think you can value bet/bluff and expect him to fold. it induces a bluff on the river anyways more times than not against such a player. situations where i am not certain, i would try this play and see it as cheap as possible.

Shillx · #12 10-13-2005, 04:23 PM

Raising looks to be a good play, but so does calling imo. KQ is a clear call and QT is a clear raise. KT could very well be a good hand to use a mixed strategy with. Since you are going to iso-raise a lot more with K-hign the Q-high, it looks like a prime hand to raise x% of the time (where x is say 15% of the time).

Brad

aces_dad · #13 10-13-2005, 04:25 PM

Replying to Aaron's last post:

You mention he could donk with a PP, but why not any piece of the board? The paired flop reduces the odds of him having caught a piece, does the fact the board is fairly low and that he could easily be calling with UI overs until the river lead you to believe he's less likely to have any piece? Or is it because you've seen him raise any piece of the board already?

While we give up on a chance to have him fold a better chance on the turn by checking, I do think checking through makes the river call easier as his donk range will open up.

Aaron W. · #14 10-13-2005, 05:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Replying to Aaron's last post:

You mention he could donk with a PP, but why not any piece of the board? The paired flop reduces the odds of him having caught a piece, does the fact the board is fairly low and that he could easily be calling with UI overs until the river lead you to believe he's less likely to have any piece? Or is it because you've seen him raise any piece of the board already?

While we give up on a chance to have him fold a better chance on the turn by checking, I do think checking through makes the river call easier as his donk range will open up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most aggressive players have a really hard time being passive. If he has a piece of this board, I think he won't be able to keep from betting/raising somewhere on the flop or turn.

Checking makes the river call easier because I'm calling basically any river if I check behind on the turn. But I'd rather bet the turn to try to knock out aces, better kings, and those hands that are worse than mine but drawing to 6 or more outs, such as Q9 and QJ. I have more to gain from getting him to fold junk than I gain by giving him a free chance to beat me.

You should be more inclined to bet the turn rather than induce a river bluff when your hand is weaker. The reason is that you cannot pick off nearly as many bluffs on the river if you have a weak hand. Another reason is that it's easier to dump to a check-raise on the turn with a mediocre hand than it is to weak-decent hand. I would hate to get check-raised here with AK because I've got a reasonable chance of having the best hand. So with AK, I check behind on the turn and call a river bet.

deception5 · #15 10-13-2005, 05:19 PM

Actually I'm wondering if the villian ever folds an ace here to your turn bet. Maybe checking behind on the turn and calling the river is superior.

Aaron W. · #16 10-13-2005, 05:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is he ever going to bet/fold this river?

If the answer is 'yes' I would prefer raising to calling. (And I know the results are in here, but even before I saw them I was worried this guy might be bluffing with the best hand.)

If he's going to show down any pair than obviously calling is better, but folding is probably best of all.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's really close. I almost raised, I almost folded, then I decided to call. Generically, players have a tough time folding a pair HU on the river. I can almost hear them thinking "He probably has the ace... oh well... I want to see it". The river bluff-raise is really reserved for players who are good enough to lay down the best hand sometimes. Maybe if I were playing $5/10 (or against a pretty good $1/2 player), I would pull the river bluff-raise. At $1-2, I just don't see it working often enough.

Aaron W. · #17 10-13-2005, 05:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Actually I'm wondering if the villian ever folds an ace here to your turn bet. Maybe checking behind on the turn and calling the river is superior.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm really not thrilled with trying to pick off a bluff with K-high. Checking behind and calling the river opens up the door for villain to value bet ace-high. If I knew he would always call a turn bet with ace-high, there's a strong argument for giving up on the hand and folding the river UI.

aces_dad · #18 10-13-2005, 05:27 PM

I clearly agree we'd rather induce a bluff / showdown against this agressive villian with a better bluff catcher like UI AK here than the weaker K10.

Even without knowingly (ie, unless I'm drinking heavily) encorportating game theory to mix things up I will, in general, try to win HU without a SD with the weaker hands I can easily fold to a raise / c/r and induce a river bet from the stronger ones. I'm glad to see you had to think about the decision on the river a little bit, as it is sometimese hard for me to make these late street decisions quickly at game speed at this point in my pokering especially when such a strange bet comes.

marchron · #19 10-14-2005, 12:48 AM

If you really think he's bluffing, why not raise and fold to a 3-bet?

milesdyson · #20 10-14-2005, 12:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you really think he's bluffing, why not raise and fold to a 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
because the only hands that are bluffing and are not betting for value against hero's hand are KJ and KQ, and we are simply folding all the rest of his possible bluffs and losing a bet against any pair hand with which he will definitely call.