Harrington Example Hand (Vol I)

I am hoping to generate some discussion on an example hand given in Harrington Vol I. The scenario is something like:

2nd day of WSOP
You have $20,000 in chips, big stack at your table seems pretty solid and experienced has $26,000, and the rest are between 5,000 and 10,000.
Blinds $200/$400
You are dealt AA in BB and raise to $2000, called only by big stack in MP. Flop comes 9 5 2 rainbow.
You bet 3000 and big stack moves all in. What's your move?

So Harrington uses this example to discuss pot odds, giving a % to the various possible hands big stack has, noting that going all in is unusual since the big stack would prefer to milk as many chips as possible if he did in fact flop a set.

The thing that confuses me is, even if big stack just flat calls or makes a small raise, how could you get away from this hand w/o getting all your chips in the pot. I suppose a very small % of the time scary enough cards could come on the turn or river. If there is a way to get away from this hand, what is the optimal betting strategy by the big stack to prevent you from doing so?

I suppose part of my confusion stems from a weakness in my game where I am afraid of getting bet off a hand. So I just make up my mind that I will risk all my chips, and usually end up pushing myself. I think it is justified in this case but I will do it in weaker situations as well. My fear of someone betting me off a hand may prevent me from sensing true strength from my opponent.

Any thoughts are much appreciated on this particular hand and on the weakness in my game.

Thanks

Highlander

What page or section is this example taken from?

it's from the Pot Odds chapter

[Ortho]

[ QUOTE ]
What page or section is this example taken from?

[/ QUOTE ]

Page 130.

I see plays like that happen often online. I'll have the aces and sometimes run into a K9 or trip sixes. I don't think it's worth it to go up against a big stack like that without trips yourself. If it's anybody else at the table I call it.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
You are dealt AA in BB and raise to $2000, called only by big stack in MP

[/ QUOTE ]

You are in the BB and you open the betting?

Regards,
Woodguy

[Ortho]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are dealt AA in BB and raise to $2000, called only by big stack in MP

[/ QUOTE ]

You are in the BB and you open the betting?

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the hand:

Blinds are 150/300. Hero has 20k, Villain has 26k

Hero has AA UTG and raises to 1,200. Villain calls in middle position. Everyone else folds. Flop comes 952 rainbow. Hero bets 3,000, villain pushes all-in.

[Scooterdoo]

Funny you should mention this hand. I've been working on an internet tool with some friends, that isn't quite ready yet. It's meant to analyze situations like this. I'll be happy to post a link when it's available. We have a help screen where we use Harrington's example to illustrate how to use the tool. I'll post it below. If anyone wants access to a beta of the tool, just PM me.

The Evaluator tool allows you to run scenarios to determine whether or not you have a positive or negative expectation when facing a decision to call a bet during a poker hand. Many times in a poker session you will have a difficult decision regarding whether to call a bet or fold your hand. Whether or not you decide to call should be based on your belief that you have the best hand at the time or that you are likely to improve to the best hand.

Example from “Harrington on Hold’em Volume 1: Strategic Play”

On page 130/Example No. 2, Harrington discusses a scenario where you hold A A against one opponent and the board shows 9 5 2 . You had bet 1,200 preflop (4x BB) and now bet an additional 3,000 when first to act after seeing the flop. Your opponent, who is the big stack at the table, puts you all-in. You are now faced with two choices: (a) call which will cost you the rest of your stack which is now $15,800, or (b) fold. The pot contains $24,900 so your pot odds are approximately 3 to 2. Should you call or fold?

According to Harrington, The big mistake that most players make in this situation is not calling or folding, but calling or folding quickly. “He’s got trip nines – I’m beaten” or “Nobody bluffs me off of aces – I’m calling”.

Harrington goes on to explain a method of attempting to put your opponent on a range of hands and then assigning a probability that your opponent is holding one of those particular hands. In this case Harrington assigns three potential holdings for the opponent: (a) a premium pair such as KK, QQ or JJ; (b) trips with a hand like 99; or (c) a bluff. Be sure to read Harrington on Hold’em Volume 1 for a complete explanation of why he chooses these hands and why he thinks that all opponents, even conservative players, bluff and you should assume that at a minimum your opponents will be bluffing 10% of the time.

To use the EValuator to run this scenario simply fill in the amount in the pot prior to your decision (in this case 24,900), the amount you will need to call (15,800), your starting hand, the board cards, your opponent’s potential holdings and a probability that your opponent is holding each of the potential holdings (note the probabilities must all add up to 100%). In this scenario Harrington assigns a 50% probability that your opponent is holding a premium pocket pair, a 40% probability that your opponent is holding trips and a 10% probability that your opponent missed the flop and is now bluffing.

http://216.133.234.75/poker/images/ev-1.jpg

When you press “Calc” the following results are displayed:

http://216.133.234.75/poker/images/ev-2.jpg

As you can see the EValuator tool shows that you have a positive expectation to call if you believe that the hand ranges are correct. Your winning probability if your opponent holds QQ is 50% x 92% = 46%. Your winning probability if your opponent holds 99 is 40% x 10% = 4%. Your winning probability if your opponent is bluffing is 10% x 98% = 10%. The estimate for total winning probability is 60% (60 = 46 + 4 + 10). Harrington summarizes the results nicely on page 136 of his book:

“We’re a favorite in the hand, and the pot is offering us a little better than 3-to-2 odds, so we call. In fact, it’s a huge call, since with the 3-to-2 pot odds, we could call if we were better than just 40% to win.”

The EValuator shows a positive variance of 21% for the winning probability and a positive dollar expectation of $8,497.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I see plays like that happen often online. I'll have the aces and sometimes run into a K9 or trip sixes. I don't think it's worth it to go up against a big stack like that without trips yourself. If it's anybody else at the table I call it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you fold aces every time the big stack pushes on a 952 flop, please give me your name and the times you are playing.

[ansky451]

Since every day there is a post quoting Harringtons book(s) can we please actually quote him correctly? If I were Dan, I'd be damn pissed every time somebody said "Well Harrington said bla bla" without really explaining themselves, or every time they quote a hand, and completely misprint the actual facts of the hand.