$109... This isn't exactly what I had in mind...

bigt439 · #1 12-08-2005, 10:29 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter

MP1 (t800)
MP2 (t1280)
MP3 (t585)
CO (t1290)
Button (t1165)
Hero (t970)
BB (t975)
UTG (t1800)
UTG+1 (t1135)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls t30, 1 fold, MP1 calls t30, MP2 calls t30, 1 fold, CO calls t30, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t180) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero bets t150, BB calls t150, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t150, CO folds.

Turn: (t630) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP2 checks.

River: (t630) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP2 bets t200, Hero folds, BB folds.

Final Pot: t830

Great turn. Better River.

I think the pot's too big to bet the turn given that one of them is likely on hearts. I also don't think that I can call the river to try and chop since a K and hearts beat me. I don't think this hand is very interesting. Reassure me.

curtains · #2 12-08-2005, 10:36 PM

"I think the pot's too big to bet the turn given that one of them is likely on hearts. "

Not sure what the above means. Usually you are more likely to bet at a pot with a decent holding when the pot is large.

Scuba Chuck · #3 12-08-2005, 10:49 PM

You really gotta hate how the kings counterfeit your kicker. I fold here.

bigt439 · #4 12-08-2005, 11:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
"I think the pot's too big to bet the turn given that one of them is likely on hearts. "

Not sure what the above means. Usually you are more likely to bet at a pot with a decent holding when the pot is large.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think that is universally true.

In any case, I said what I did because I don't have room to find a fold to any action and it is likely that if big money goes in this pot I'm drawing to at most 4 outs against a flush. My point was that the pot is too big relative to my stack for me to do a whole lot of maneuvering. It just really looks like I was up against at least on heart draw on the flop, but I'm open to suggestions.

tigerite · #5 12-09-2005, 06:35 AM

Horrible spot, I think I'd have to bet the turn here, I might sometimes c-r the flop as well, depends on how aggro the opponents were. Thing is if someone else has an ace, they will bet it for you, because they want to drive out heart draws.. meh.

#6 12-09-2005, 08:28 AM

We're not good on the river 1/5 of the time here?

IMHO, the hands that seem to make most sense for MP are Ax (including Axh).

Board: 7h 9h Ad Kh Kc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 75.0000 % 50.00% 25.00% { A2s+, A5o+ }
Hand 2: 25.0000 % 00.00% 25.00% { As9c }

He certainly could have other hands that beat us, but are there really enough to make this a fold? Keep in mind that a lot of low made flushes bet the turn and most sets raise flop/bet turn.

#7 12-09-2005, 09:14 AM

I think folding the river is fine. I also think that a more interesting question is what to do on the flop. Do I understand correctly that you figure someone had to have the flush draw on the flop so you would fold to a good sized bet on the turn?

I understand with 5 opponents on the flop you fear the flush draw but mathematically speaking it's still far more likely that the flush draw is NOT out there (correct me if I'm wrong) which indicates pushing the turn. Sure you'll be be facing a flush sometimes but I believe you will also be ahead much of the time when called and you will take it down uncontested lots too which is fine also. There's over 600 in the pot and you have about 800 chips left at that moment, the risk reward looks real good to me here. If the pot were significantly smaller or your stack bigger then it would be a much tougher spot but the way things are pushing looks clear to me. One thing for sure you do not want to give a free card here because if you still have chips when the river rolls around you could be in a very tough spot.

I also disagree that the pot is too big to bet, just the opposite, it's too big not to push.

Sciolist · #8 12-09-2005, 10:02 AM

It could also be that a heart acting last will go ahead and bet too. I think I'd be looking for a c-r here, if it's checked and the turn comes a heart, so be it, I'm not going to be investing more. You can probably C-R all-in and take a decent pot on the flop?

Kristian · #9 12-09-2005, 10:03 AM

I was also wondering about the fear of the flush draw, and the likelihood that at least one of the 2 opponents are holding 2 hearts.
It is one thing to calculate the probability of at least one of the 5 players who saw the flop holding 2 hearts, this is not easy (for me), so I asked in the probability forum (no answers yet).
But it is quite another to evaluate this probability after 2 players have called a bet. You need to know the habits of your typical 109$ SnG opponents to adjust the objective probability of a flush draw.

My gut feeling is that we shouldn't be too afraid of the flush and bet the turn, but I am not used to the 109's yet. Could be that we only rarely would see calls from other hands than flush draws in this situation, and in that case we should be check/folding the rest of the way.

#10 12-09-2005, 10:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I was also wondering about the fear of the flush draw, and the likelihood that at least one of the 2 opponents are holding 2 hearts.
It is one thing to calculate the probability of at least one of the 5 players who saw the flop holding 2 hearts, this is not easy (for me), so I asked in the probability forum (no answers yet).
But it is quite another to evaluate this probability after 2 players have called a bet. You need to know the habits of your typical 109$ SnG opponents to adjust the objective probability of a flush draw.

My gut feeling is that we shouldn't be too afraid of the flush and bet the turn, but I am not used to the 109's yet. Could be that we only rarely would see calls from other hands than flush draws in this situation, and in that case we should be check/folding the rest of the way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, the fact that 2 callers on the flop makes it more likely that the flush is out there but I'm not sure that it's all that much more. I mean with 6 to the flop you will get called in at least one place right? 2 callers wouldn't be out of the question even if there was no flush draw out there either.

Do let us know if you get a response from the probability forum, I'm sure curious. I've been thinking about this one a fair bit and waffled myself before posting but I still like pushing though I can't say I'm sure. If the mathematical chances of a flush draw being present are higher than I suspect then that would change things. Wish I was better at math.