75/150 River bluff #2

[Alobar]

getting a LAG to fold on a paired flop HU, doesnt sound that promising to me

[ALL1N]

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getting a LAG to fold on a paired flop HU, doesnt sound that promising to me

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That's what they want you to think, and how they can run you over.

[ALL1N]

Had a look, good analysis mate.

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If he will fold the K high hands on the turn and therefore can have only Ace high or an overcard(s) plus gutshot hand, he needs to be willing to bluff 43.4/201 = .216, or almost 22% of the time for our river raise to be profitable.

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This is the bit I was after. K-high can pretty much be discounted, if not for the reason that he folds the turn but because it'd be unusual for him to bet the river with it. So, 22%. Not high, but definately not low either. The fact that I hadn't really been playing back and also that I'd shown him down reasonable hands makes it worse for me here, since it probably means his bluffing into me less.

And also, while I normally hate discussing image benefits, it's probably very profitable to be called here. The multistreet bluff will definately deter him from stealing, which is fantastic with the 2/3 blind structure.

[ALL1N]

He folded. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]