98s.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn bet is so weak and putting him on a hand is hard here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think it is weak?


[ QUOTE ]
If he turned his boat would he really lead?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know. I lead a lot with hands like these, but I'd venture a guess and say that I am better than the majority of the players at my level.


[ QUOTE ]
Is he capable of limping A6s, 46s, or 86s?

[/ QUOTE ]

86s, possibly.. some players really love SCs, but with 15 VPIP, doubtful. I also doubt he's calling my raise with it. He's a tight player and I assume he knows I am solid, so he's not calling that much with his crappy transparent draw. A6s? Not a chance, I raised his $5 bet to $20.. he isn't calling with A6. He should be putting me on a set here, that's how I'd be playing one.


[ QUOTE ]
I'd call turn and see what happens on the river. If he makes it half pot or less on the river I'd consider raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have narrowed it down to this or fold.

[jkkkk]

[ QUOTE ]
I like your style.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks.

I call down here because he could have the smaller straight or something like 88 possibly TT, depends how much respect villain has for you I guess..

[-Skeme-]

Yes, with a VPIP of 15 over 950 hands, he is limping UTG+1 with 84 and 43. I suppose it's possible he leads with 88 and TT after my raise, suspecting I am drawing, if so.. good bet.

[Ghazban]

It sounds like you've decided he can't have anything but a boat so why post the hand? You're drawing dead to a boat so its a clear fold even if he bets the minimum. I think you see 44 and 88 enough of the time to at least try to get to showdown (barring an 8, 4, or 6 river of course).

[Lady Dont Tekno]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn bet is so weak and putting him on a hand is hard here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think it is weak?

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting 2/5 pot I consider weak, until proven otherwise (ie raise).



[ QUOTE ]
...I assume he knows I am solid, so he's not calling that much with his crappy transparent draw...He should be putting me on a set here, that's how I'd be playing one.

[/ QUOTE ]

One thing I've noticed between this and your 97s post is that you're putting alot of faith in your opponents reads on you. This thinking is going to be a huge advantage to you as you move up (especially $600NL+) but I think you may be putting too much value into image and folding equity at $200NL? People want to make hands on rivers and see showdowns.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd call turn and see what happens on the river. If he makes it half pot or less on the river I'd consider raising.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have narrowed it down to this or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't fold for 2/5 bet on the turn. I'm not going to speculate the river because there are numerous scare cards that could come, but assuming it's a blank (I'd like to see big cards on the river) I'd call a half-pot - 2/3 pot bet and raise any of his weak-ass fraction bets.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
It sounds like you've decided he can't have anything but a boat so why post the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have decided he can't have 84, 43, A6, or 86. A somewhat small overpair is somewhat possible. 88, maybe, but doubtful IMO. 44, almost no chance at all.

I posted the hand because I figured I'd get good responses that'd help me put him on a hand.. not nearly impossible gapped connectors from EP on a player with a VPIP in the 10s.


[ QUOTE ]
Betting 2/5 pot I consider weak, until proven otherwise (ie raise).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the amount of the bet is nearly as important as the action that precedes it. He just lead into me again, OOP, after I reraised him big on the flop. Usually a weak lead here, which I don't consider $20 into $49 pot, is a draw.


[ QUOTE ]
One thing I've noticed between this and your 97s post is that you're putting alot of faith in your opponents reads on you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also don't see this. If anything it's my reads on my opponents.


[ QUOTE ]
This thinking is going to be a huge advantage to you as you move up (especially $600NL+) but I think you may be putting too much value into image and folding equity at $200NL?

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually don't put much stock into this whole image thing. I don't advertise bluffs much at all. Recognizing my opponent as a decent and thinking player is as far as that stuff goes for me. Him recognizing me as the same comes with that territory.


[ QUOTE ]
People want to make hands on rivers and see showdowns.

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur, but when I have 950 hands on a person that show he is a very tight player, I disregard the default read on players at $200 NL.


[ QUOTE ]
Don't fold for 2/5 bet on the turn. I'm not going to speculate the river because there are numerous scare cards that could come, but assuming it's a blank (I'd like to see big cards on the river) I'd call a half-pot - 2/3 pot bet and raise any of his weak-ass fraction bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alrighty..

[-Skeme-]

-----
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

UTG ($241.80)
UTG+1 ($190)
MP1 ($309.10)
MP2 ($91.50)
Hero ($200)
CO ($466.85)
Button ($504.05)
SB ($200.75)
BB ($96.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, UTG+1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($9) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $15.

Turn: ($49) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $20</font>, Hero calls $20.

River: ($89) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $40</font>, Hero ??
-----

[Isura]

I think with this player, you shouldn't raise. I can see him limping in EP with 88-TT (possibly JJ). His turn bet is either a boat or a probe with his overpair. If you raise, he'll fold his overpair and repop with a boat. If he's sort of competent, he might start thinking his hand is still good on the river, and may throw out a blocker. I still you can't raise the river though. I would call and call about a 1/2 pot bet on the river.

[jkkkk]

I call the river.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
His turn bet is either a boat or a probe with his overpair. If you raise, he'll fold his overpair and repop with a boat. If he's sort of competent, he might start thinking his hand is still good on the river, and may throw out a blocker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, sounds about right. If he bets again with 88-TT I am screwed. I don't think he would, though. If he put me on a draw with an 8, I missed, so he'd just check and let me bluff.. assuming he thinks on this level, which is probably a stretch. Anyway, he can't expect me to have anything but a set myself, possibly 2 pair (on flop) or the straight.