Stats post... - Page 3

MicroBob · #21 12-10-2005, 11:45 PM

Nice post and all true of course.

but there's also a tendency around here for someone to be in a 300BB downswing and be told "well...that's bound to happen sooner or later for any winning player."

the fact remains that it could very well also be indicative of some really crappy play and it's dangerous to always turn to the 'variance is wild' logic to explain away any or every downswing.

I see posts from new-ish players who are concerned with how much they have lost in a very short period.
Well...yes, the idea needs to be driven in that variance happens. But they also need to be told that they very well might not be playing a winning game.

I agree with the overall sentiment though. Just pointing out a little nit-pick of mine on a lot of the various variance posts around here.

I got on today and dropped around 30BB's.
Took a break. Got back on and dropped another 20BB's.

50BB's down for the day is nothing spectacular of course.
But the number of -20 to -50 days I've been having lately is a bit more than I'm comfortable with (personal downswing is up to about 600BB's now...Hooray!!!! at least my AA's are stealing the blinds now..instead of constantly getting sucked-out on)

ghostface · #22 12-11-2005, 12:03 AM

Can a lot of these downswings be because of the rake increase a while back?

krishanleong · #23 12-11-2005, 12:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Can a lot of these downswings be because of the rake increase a while back?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

Krishan

krishanleong · #24 12-11-2005, 12:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I was trying to make a comparison between the lower end of the defending range vs the middle of their stealing range. That is a comparison that would make sense to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the correct way to determine blind defense hands. I misunderstood some of your earlier posts. Thanks for the clarification.

Krishan

Festis · #25 12-11-2005, 02:59 AM

Did not want to do a new thred.. So ask it here.. Is went to showdown % something that converts quickly? say 5k hands.. Or does it take alot of hands?

jba · #26 12-11-2005, 03:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can a lot of these downswings be because of the rake increase a while back?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't understand how you can discount this so easily. even a .25bb/100 drop in win rates can have a dramatic effect on probability of a downswing, can't it? I'm not sure if the rake increase has been quantified but IIRC estimates were in this neighborhood

jba · #27 12-11-2005, 04:37 AM

here's a pic that illustrates the silliness of 5k stat posts

my night tonight:

I run pretty consistently at 24/17 and -1.7bb/100, so you can imagine what these hands would do to a 5k sample

LoaferGee12 · #28 12-11-2005, 04:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I run pretty consistently at 24/17 and -1.7bb/100

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, brilliant.

scotty34 · #29 12-11-2005, 05:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
here's a pic that illustrates the silliness of 5k stat posts

my night tonight:

I run pretty consistently at 24/17 and -1.7bb/100, so you can imagine what these hands would do to a 5k sample

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are a good player, you should play twice as many hands in half the time for the same results

jba · #30 12-11-2005, 05:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
here's a pic that illustrates the silliness of 5k stat posts

my night tonight:

I run pretty consistently at 24/17 and -1.7bb/100, so you can imagine what these hands would do to a 5k sample

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are a good player, you should play twice as many hands in half the time for the same results

[/ QUOTE ]

bitch please, I purposefully didnt post all my hands for tonight so you guys wouldn't hang yourselves from your shower rods