JTo. - Page 2

-Skeme- · #11 12-09-2005, 07:39 PM

I didn't think I needed to bet the flop. Didn't wanna get check-raised, had a good draw, etc. I just don't think betting the flop accomplishes a whole lot.

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I think the guy has a flush draw and hes not calling anything, but I still say not betting the flop is a felony.

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Why? Do you think a 9 is calling my PSB? I have the OESD, there are no flush draws, I don't even have top pair.

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share w/ me these drugs.

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I don't know, I just looked at his PT Stats and decided with him cold-calling my raise on the turn, he either has a T (which is most likely better than mine with him limping UTG at 11 VPIP) or a good draw. A draw doesn't call so I have no positive expectation by betting there and I thought a better T or a straight was more likely.

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bet

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A player as good as yourself should not be allowed to give such replies. C'mon, Bobbo, lay some logic on me so I don't miss bets in the future.

Anyway, what are we putting Villain on?

BobboFitos · #12 12-09-2005, 07:54 PM

good post skeme, but...

The flop, I actually like the check. I dont think it's a required bet. Not many bad cards could come off, (since one of the overs will give you a straight, top pair pairing makes it more likely your mid pair is good, etc) and it's unlikely too many worse hands (given lack of draws) will give you action (although bottom pair or spare J could)

On the turn, villain min bets and you raise. Fair enough, but the problem is you think this means he has trips or better. I'd think your hand is almost always good here.

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bet

A player as good as yourself should not be allowed to give such replies. C'mon, Bobbo, lay some logic on me so I don't miss bets in the future.

Anyway, what are we putting Villain on?

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HE could have aton of hands, most of which we're beating. Most, as well, dont pay off, so I wouldn't bomb the river. But he easilyt could have a pair (or picked one up) or just not believe you have trips (and subsequently didnt bet the flop with top pair) So I'm throwing out a bet which may or may not be called, but when called, I still win alot. I forget what others said to bet, but a half pot bet here or whatnot is good. Checking is not.

-Skeme- · #13 12-09-2005, 08:00 PM

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On the turn, villain min bets and you raise.

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Nah, random guy minbets, I raise, and Villain cold-calls.

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Fair enough, but the problem is you think this means he has trips or better.

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Yeah, with a VPIP of 11 and and UTG limp, I am somewhat worried. It could also be a strong draw, yes, and since it didn't hit, I see no reason in betting.

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I'd think your hand is almost always good here.

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This has to be pushing it.

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HE could have aton of hands, most of which we're beating.

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Name 3 reasonable hands, an UTG limper with a VPIP of 11, cold-calls the turn with, that will call a bet here, that I beat, nonetheless.

soah · #14 12-09-2005, 08:16 PM

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I didn't think I needed to bet the flop. Didn't wanna get check-raised, had a good draw, etc. I just don't think betting the flop accomplishes a whole lot.

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You don't have a good draw. You have a very obvious one-card draw which might only be worth half the pot. If you check and hit on the turn you get no action except from hands splitting with you. If you get checkraised on the flop your hand is no good and you've given up very little equity by folding your draw.

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Why? Do you think a 9 is calling my PSB? I have the OESD, there are no flush draws, I don't even have top pair.

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A nine has five outs against you. Any ace, any king, any eight have three outs against you. Any pocket pair has two outs against you. Any jack has eight split outs. Against three (or was it four? I forgot) opponents that adds up to a lot of outs. How do you feel when the limper spikes a set of fours on the turn and bets into you? You're not folding second pair there after no flop action. Furthermore, tons of players will call on the flop with a naked jack. You are on a huge freeroll against them.

BobboFitos · #15 12-09-2005, 08:27 PM

Ok -

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Icon: TP preflop, but Agg postflop.
Hands: 84
VP$IP: 11

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First, 84 hands are nothing. But if we take those for face value, he's supposed to be aggressive postflop. He has limped pf, checked the flop, called a "raise" (after a min bet), and checked river. This is not aggression.

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I'd think your hand is almost always good here.

This has to be pushing it.

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Why?

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On the turn, villain min bets and you raise.

Nah, random guy minbets, I raise, and Villain cold-calls.

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My mistake...

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HE could have aton of hands, most of which we're beating.

Name 3 reasonable hands, an UTG limper with a VPIP of 11, cold-calls the turn with, that will call a bet here, that I beat, nonetheless.

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I cant really name a single hand. If we limit him to 11% vpip - so pps, maybe big aces or the like, not even broadways or suited connectors, the best I can come up with is KQs or AJs. Both may call a half pot bet on river. (Esp. AJ)

But a better way to do this is work backwards, and look at the relative value of your hand. What hands beat you?

AA, QQ, TT, 99
AT, KT, QT, T9
KJ, J8
(heh, am I missing any? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

I think you said he had 0% pfr, so maybe he only raises AA and QQ there. (Or maybe not!) But we'll take them out. TT is impossible, as well. So for an underfull, did he really limp, then not bet a single street with a set? Unlikely.
I dont think he's playing KT or QT or T9 if he really is 11%vpip (although, as said, sample size so small he could) But again, doesnt he bet somewhere w/ those?

He never has J8, and KJ is unlikely, as well.

Its just... I cant see him having a better hand here, and since there ARE hands he could have which call a river bet, you should bet. And, I wouldn't bet alot, because he probably wont make a heroic call w/ a middling hand.

-Skeme- · #16 12-09-2005, 08:28 PM

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You don't have a good draw.

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Well, I don't have a very good hand. Is MPJK a strong enough hand to need to protect in a $9 limped pot?

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If you get checkraised on the flop your hand is no good and you've given up very little equity by folding your draw.

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Right, but if I get check-raised by, lets say, a set of Nines or something, I've given up my free card and draw. If I made my straight on the turn and potted it, I do not see the set of 9s folding.

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A nine has five outs against you. Any ace, any king, any eight have three outs against you. Any pocket pair has two outs against you.

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Kings and Eights don't have any outs against me, redraws perhaps, but not direct hits. They make my straight. All of these outs against me I am not concerned with as I do not have a worthy hand of calling bets or making raises with. It's just MP with a Jack kicker.

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How do you feel when the limper spikes a set of fours on the turn and bets into you?

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If someone pots it to me on a 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] turn, I fold it and give them credit for a better hand than MP. I won't be getting into trouble with this hand, which is why I have no quarrels with checking behind.

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You're not folding second pair there after no flop action.

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If they pot it, or near pot it, yeah, I usually do.

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Furthermore, tons of players will call on the flop with a naked jack. You are on a huge freeroll against them.

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This is a pretty good point.

-Skeme- · #17 12-09-2005, 08:35 PM

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First, 84 hands are nothing.

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What would be something? I believe I PMd soah or another good regular a long time ago about the minimum amount of hands for PT auto-rating and they said 50. 84 is over 9 orbits, that isn't enough to get a somewhat decent assessment of their starting hand requirements?

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But if we take those for face value, he's supposed to be aggressive postflop. He has limped pf, checked the flop, called a "raise" (after a min bet), and checked river. This is not aggression.

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I don't really pay attention to the icon as it's inaccurate.

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Why?

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Because he's not calling with less than trips? Maybe we just have very different perceptions of SSNL players, but with 11 VPIP, I can't put him on a Queen with this action.

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If we limit him to 11% vpip - so pps, maybe big aces or the like, not even broadways or suited connectors, the best I can come up with is KQs or AJs. Both may call a half pot bet on river. (Esp. AJ)

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Even these sound very unlikely to me. AJs maybe, but even then I think it's pushing it with turn action. Half pot bet, yeah, I guess he probably would call, but KQs, no. I think he'd just bet himself. Does KQs limp UTG with 11 VPIP?

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But again, doesnt he bet somewhere w/ those?

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Theoretically, lol.

-----
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

Button ($246.80)
SB ($1083.10)
BB ($35.45)
UTG ($221.85)
UTG+1 ($154)
MP1 ($115.70)
MP2 ($269.20)
MP3 ($50)
Hero ($208)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $2, 3 folds, MP3 (poster) checks, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($9) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($9) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP3 bets $2, Hero raises to $10, BB folds, UTG calls $10, MP3 folds.

River: ($31) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $31

Results in white below: 
UTG has 9d 9h (full house, nines full of tens).
Hero has Tc Js (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: UTG wins $31. 
-----

I am still very confused about my river play.

BobboFitos · #18 12-09-2005, 08:58 PM

After the 2nd post I got the feeling you made a very good check behin d(situationally) but this is really a value bet through and through. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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First, 84 hands are nothing.

What would be something? I believe I PMd soah or another good regular a long time ago about the minimum amount of hands for PT auto-rating and they said 50. 84 is over 9 orbits, that isn't enough to get a somewhat decent assessment of their starting hand requirements?

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Ok, maybe I spoke incorrectly; 84 isn't "nothing." It's more then 83, which is more then 82, etc etc. But I still think AJs and KQs et al should be considered in his post flop line; his postflop line has conveyed so much weakness I just can't fathom (against a normal opponent) making this a regular check behind.

BTW, I ment to tack something earlier, but if flop is checked around, and a blank falls, and someone leads for pot, it's most definately not an auto fold at all.

-Skeme- · #19 12-09-2005, 09:11 PM

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(situationally)

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Yeah, of course situationally, that is what this whole post hinges on.

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BTW, I ment to tack something earlier, but if flop is checked around, and a blank falls, and someone leads for pot, it's most definately not an auto fold at all.

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When I said this, I had UTG as the bettor in mind, and I certainly auto-fold that. That's just my personal preference. If the player second to last, directly behind me had bet, I might consider a call. If already behind I have a possible redraw with my straight, which is slightly concealed as they'd most likely assume I'd bet it.

But normally I would fold for a PSB there. Maybe a leak? Good discussion, by the way. Thanks, Bob.

soah · #20 12-09-2005, 09:19 PM

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A nine has five outs against you. Any ace, any king, any eight have three outs against you. Any pocket pair has two outs against you.

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Kings and Eights don't have any outs against me, redraws perhaps, but not direct hits. They make my straight. All of these outs against me I am not concerned with as I do not have a worthy hand of calling bets or making raises with. It's just MP with a Jack kicker.

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Straights beat two pair, yes?