TPNK + flush draw against large field

[WordWhiz]

Crypto 2/4 – 10 players.

Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

MP1, MP3, and Button limp, SB completes, hero checks.

Reads: all players are fairly standard. Little looser and more passive than they should be, but nothing peculiar about anyone.

Flop (5 players, 5 SB)

Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, hero calls, 3 limpers call.

Should I have raised here? Whether I currently have the best hand or not, I definitely have a huge pot equity edge against 4 other players with nearly random hands. Just call to get more money in the pot? Raise to protect?

Turn: 5 players (5 BB)

2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB bets, hero raises, MP1 calls, two folds, SB calls.

Again, almost certainly a huge pot equity edge, and likely the best hand. This time I decide to raise, but again, I’m not sure. Anyone with a flush draw, or straight draw isn’t going anywhere in this pot, so I suppose I should raise since they’ll call anyway, whereas a totally busted hand like 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] wont call even one bet.

River: 3 players (11 BB)

4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, hero raises, MP1 folds, SB calls.

The only street I’m sure I played right (okay, this and preflop).

I thought this was a really interesting hand and would appreciate comments.

[milesdyson]

i like this hand all the way around.

if you had an offsuit Q2 you would fold the flop.

i would estimate you winning this pot like 5-10% of the time if you didn't hit your 2/[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. on the flop, the pot is not large enough to "protect" your very weak top pair.

[nomadtla]

I like it.
Before I even read the turn I was thinking we might semi-bluf it and deffinately raise it if a 2 comes off. I like the flop, if we're against something nasty (made straight) let's let the dingbats behind us help pad our pleathora of draws.

[DCWildcat]

Actually, I like this line plenty.

The turn's isn't a semi-bluff when a 2 falls. We probably have the best hand here.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

nice hand sir.

[ QUOTE ]
Again, almost certainly a huge pot equity edge, and likely the best hand. This time I decide to raise, but again, I’m not sure. Anyone with a flush draw, or straight draw isn’t going anywhere in this pot, so I suppose I should raise since they’ll call anyway, whereas a totally busted hand like 65 wont call even one bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a very good thought process. people give a lot of excuses to why not to raise, with "they're going to call with a draw anyways" being the top reason as if that was a bad thing.

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn's isn't a semi-bluff when a 2 falls.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Before I even read the turn I was thinking we might semi-bluf it

[/ QUOTE ]

I know raising on the 2 is not a semi-bluff I was saying I may raise the turn if it was a brick. Given that it's the 2 I'm deffinately raising.

I liked all streets

[eviljeff]

raise the flop. you've got equity and you also want to punish those drawing to a straight.

definitely pop the turn. too many cards can come on the river that kill your hand.

on the river, if there were more players you'd want to go for overcalls, but with only 3 in raising is fine.

[Moozh]

I'm surprised you didn't raise the flop here. With such a drawy board, you shouldn't worry about anything folding. Almost any conceivable preflop hand fits this board somehow. By not raising, you lost a potential 2bb (* your equity %) that you'll have to make up later on. Is it really worth waiting?

By not raising the flop, you're keeping the pot smaller and making it more difficult for people to call your raise on the turn. After a blank 2 comes out, a lot of backdoor draws have missed, so you'll lose out on all of those players and their money.

Finally, while SB has a wide hand range, you should really consider that there's a strong possibility that your Q2 is the best hand on the flop. I wouldn't necessarily relegate yourself to 2nd place right off the bat. Of course, a lot depends on SB's betting standards.

Turn and river are obviously raising streets.

[ QUOTE ]
if you had an offsuit Q2 you would fold the flop.

i would estimate you winning this pot like 5-10% of the time if you didn't hit your 2/[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. on the flop, the pot is not large enough to "protect" your very weak top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Miles, I'm having trouble understanding why you would fold Q2o on the flop. I know Q2o would not be a very strong hand here because of the board, but I would have thought it would at least be strong enough to continue at this point. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Having said that, with Q2o, I would also think the choice would be raise or fold. Why not raise and see what the players behind you do, and then re-evaluate on the turn?

[Catsailor]

I think I would raise this flop. I think your hand is good now, but I would like to see how they react to a raise on the cheap street. Any pair or good straight draw will still come along. And if you don't hit your draws you might buy some valuable outs.
I've been lurking a long time but want to improve so I'm trying to post and reply more. Any input is appreciated.
Cat