Squeeze play gone horribly wrong

[punter11235]

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Can I spin it off as an image play, or is it just bad in all aspects?

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I will get out of line (as usual) and say that imo its not plainly stupid play. Assuming that he plays like that only with AA and KK , KK is twice as likely now. There is now 1000 in the pot and you risk 1650 to win it...
Now :
33% (for AA)- your results = 90%*(-1650) + 10% (+2650) = -1220
66% (for KK)- your results = -1650 + (p*2650 + (1-p)*33%*4300)
where p is probability of him folding KK to your allin.
Break even point is at : (-1/3*1220) + (2/3)(-1650 + (p*2650 + (1-p)*33%*4300) = 0

Which brings us p = 67.9%

So if you think that he will fold kings 2 times out of 3 in this spot this play is break even. So yeah that's kinda optimistic but not THAT stupid...

Best wishes

[yvesaint]

hes never folding kings he has 350 left in his stack

[punter11235]

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he has 350 left in his stack

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Jeez... I misread the post and did the calculations for 2k stacks ... ok so I think the play is lame [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
I will left previous post untouched though maybe someone will find it interesting...

[edge]

So I suppose I should be folding every single hand except the other AA? I wonder how many posters would actually be able to fold KK in this spot? Anyway, I should learn math. Although as a general rule it's absurd to fold KK to a 50 BB stack, it's probably right in this instance.

[JMa]

no, folding KK here is incredibly stupid

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I should learn math.

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Don't bother right behind English math is the most overrated subject taught in the United States.

[creedofhubris]

The pf reraise is fine.

But once UTG flips over his cards and shows you his AA, you have to fold.

[punter11235]

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Although as a general rule it's absurd to fold KK to a 50 BB stack, it's probably right in this instance.

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I would never fold KK in this spot. My assumptions about his hand range and calculations were both way off because I assumed 100B stacks.
With Villain having 50BB he may have A9+ 88+ or even some other crap so calling with KK is mandatory imo

[edge]

Ok, now I'm confused. This is probably the most obvious AA ever. Why should I definitely fold A2s every time but not KK? Are you now saying that my push with A2s is good because he's a 50 BB stack? It's one or the other--if it's a bad push, it would be bad to push KK as well.

[soah]

KK will sometimes be a very big favorite. A2s is behind 100% of the time.