Matt Matros article in Cardplayer about coinflips

[nath]

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First off, a guy that makes this kind of play is probably the worst player at the table if not the tournament. I figure to be able to get a decent chunk of this guys chips in better situations anyway. Why rush?

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Eight other players at the table are probably thinking the same thing. With all that competition, do you really think you have a better than 54% shot later on to take ALL his chips?
Here is your chance to beat the rest of the table to it. Opportunity has presented itself. Seize the day!

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- Second, I'm starting out with 0.1% of the chips. If I double first hand .... ok fine ..... I now have 0.2%. Am I realistically any less or more of a favorite to get to the money or finish high in the money? IMHO, no.

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IMHO, you are twice as likely to finish in the money. Do you see why?

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Third, if I decide to lay that hand down, I make sure to show everyone that I'm laying it down. It is a classic dump, purposely intended to make people fire at will at me. It loosens people up and makes it more likely that they will be trying to outplay me with lesser hands.

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At what point will you be willing to take a stand, though? You won't get AA or KK enough. I'd be willing to bet you end up folding lots of hands "waiting for a better spot" until it's too late.

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IMHO, there is one fatal flaw in the Matros argument. Yes Matros counts down the number of times he has doubled up. He also states correctly that he is doing well by doubling up in the majority of his all-ins. Ok, fine, I'll buy that.

However, what he fails to do is establish any correlation between the points of the tournaments at which he made his doubles, versus the eventual finish in the tournament.

If asked in reality, I would doubt seriously that he would admit to pushing all-in during the first hand or first orbit of a major tournament ....... ever!!

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He has probably never had a situation where he has seen his opponent's cards after he pushed all-in, though. So what is your point? The example is illustrative of a principle, not a tournament situation one expects to encounter.

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Let's take the argument two steps further.

- Replace the two Queens with two Jacks. Do you still make the call? The odds are almost the same.

- Replace the two Queens with two Tens. Do you still make the call? The odds are almost the same.

If you can't answer yes to the same question for the QQ, JJ and TT, then there is a flaw in the logic. You either call with all 3 or lay down all three. If you follow Matros' logic, then you call with everything down to about 55, or you fold with everything. Who in their right mind would do that?

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I would because I'm not under the delusion that over the course of the tournament I'm going to have a better shot of getting to 20,000 chips in the long run.

But Spee, you and I have been down this road before. I feel as though you treat each tournament individually as a contest to survive as long as possible without looking at the plays that will maximize your ROI in the long run. I actually posted this to specifically address the mentality you (and others) exhibit; Matros has done a clear and concise job of explaining it and backing it up with math. I have attempted to do so in the past with theory and philosophy (and eloquence, I hope), so I feel I have no more to say on the subject.

[limon]

i call 55 in a heartbeat, then again my tournament entry is pennies to me and life is one long poker game. like doyle i'd bet it all on a coinflip getting 55-45, ive been broke before, its no biggie.

furthermore, he may be the worst player and now you have his sorry ass all to yourself...why give him back to the rest of the table?

and...many top players go broke in the first few orbits because of plays exactly like this...thats why they are top players, theats why you know them and they dont know you.

ask yourself this, would you do it if the buy in was $10 instead of $10,000 of course you would! now go back to the $10 games where you can make good decisions. 10k will be a penny in no time.

[limon]

deal with the example at hand...dont make up new examples to justify ur bich ass fold....hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[Noodles]

if you are afraid to go allin when you KNOW you have an edge then why the hell are you playing poker?

[gergery]

So lets say it’s the same exact situation except you are in the big blind and it’s folded to the small blind who pushes. You see he has JTs. You have 88. you’re edge is now 50.2% and you’re getting better than 50-50 pot odds ---- do you call now? It is EV+ after all.

What’s equity percentage point at which you call vs. fold?

Let's say the 9 other players at your table reveal that they are beginners who won seats in workplace raffles, like the woman from that magazine last year -- does your answer change?

-g

[Noodles]

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i call 55 in a heartbeat, then again my tournament entry is pennies to me and life is one long poker game. like doyle i'd bet it all on a coinflip getting 55-45, ive been broke before, its no biggie.

furthermore, he may be the worst player and now you have his sorry ass all to yourself...why give him back to the rest of the table?

and...many top players go broke in the first few orbits because of plays exactly like this...thats why they are top players, theats why you know them and they dont know you.

ask yourself this, would you do it if the buy in was $10 instead of $10,000 of course you would! now go back to the $10 games where you can make good decisions. 10k will be a penny in no time.

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excellent points,what is all this waste an adge now to find a bigger edge later stuff about.

what if you dont find a bigger edge later,then youll wish to go back in time to the hand where you had a small edge, [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

doesnt that stuff come from slanskys bit about forgoing a coinflip today as youll have a better bet tomorrow,
but in poker you dont know for sure if your going to have bigger edges in a tournie later on,
what if you get dealt garbage after this initial hand? youd be kincking yourself.

this leave a small adge stuff is for wimps

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i call 55 in a heartbeat...

ask yourself this, would you do it if the buy in was $10 instead of $10,000 of course you would! now go back to the $10 games where you can make good decisions. 10k will be a penny in no time.

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So what you're saying... is that if you knew you where 75% better than your opponent... and your EV was positive every time you played him... you would take a 55% coin-flip to beat him? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I hope people don't back you in heads up tournaments. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[nath]

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So lets say it’s the same exact situation except you are in the big blind and it’s folded to the small blind who pushes. You see he has JTs. You have 88. you’re edge is now 50.2% and you’re getting better than 50-50 pot odds ---- do you call now? It is EV+ after all.

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Mmm... yeah I think so, tough as it might be at the time to actually pull the trigger.

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What’s equity percentage point at which you call vs. fold?

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He Who Must Not Be Banned suggests he would take a "true coinflip: "You move all-in blind in the small blind, I call blind in the big blind." At that point it's +EV by a small blind. Again, I say I would and feel it is right. It does take some courage to pull the trigger, but if you don't have that, tournament poker probably isn't for you.

[nath]

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[ QUOTE ]
i call 55 in a heartbeat...

ask yourself this, would you do it if the buy in was $10 instead of $10,000 of course you would! now go back to the $10 games where you can make good decisions. 10k will be a penny in no time.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what you're saying... is that if you knew you where 75% better than your opponent... and your EV was positive every time you played him... you would take a 55% coin-flip to beat him? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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Quantifying the % you are better than an opponent is nigh impossible; 75% sounds like a huge stretch. Besides, as mentioned before, you have eight other players to contend with at the table who will also be trying to get his chips.

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I hope people don't back you in heads up tournaments. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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It's not a heads-up tournament, where you can let small edges accumulate over time. Why do you think Hellmuth won that but rarely goes deep in big-field events anymore (at least not without loads of bitching and moaning to his mommy and daddy that the mean aggressive players don't play by his rules)?

[Exitonly]

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So lets say it’s the same exact situation except you are in the big blind and it’s folded to the small blind who pushes. You see he has JTs. You have 88. you’re edge is now 50.2% and you’re getting better than 50-50 pot odds ---- do you call now? It is EV+ after all.

What’s equity percentage point at which you call vs. fold?

Let's say the 9 other players at your table reveal that they are beginners who won seats in workplace raffles, like the woman from that magazine last year -- does your answer change?

-g

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i feel like i'm arguing for both sides, i agree about pushing small edges, and i'm not afraid of 'coinflips' (well i guess i am), but i'm folding the 88 here... and i'd probably fold the QQ too.

but like adanthar said, vs AKo i think i'd call. around 55% feels like the turning point for me.

---



If before the tournament started, the tournament director proposed that you flip this coin (literally) if it's heads you start with 20,000, if its tails, you're out. Would you take it?

What matters is your EV at 10k, and your EV at 20k. I don't think it's quite double (atleast for me). If your value goes from 10,000 to 17,500.. then it would be +EV for you starting at a 57% chancec to double up.