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  #11  
Old 10-25-2005, 11:21 AM
DougOzzzz DougOzzzz is offline
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Default Re: World Series Game 3

Well, for one I am a little more reluctant to trust a pitcher who has had a mediocre career except for one year. Second, I think the White Sox offense is a little better than Houston, therefore making Oswalt's W-L a little more impressive. Third, Oswalt's peripheral stats are superior (better K and BB rates, higher GB/FB ratio). Garland has the better defense backing him, which is part of the reason for the relatively close ERA.

As I said, I favor the White Sox line - but I don't think Garland is all that close to Oswalt. I don't think they are all that far apart either, though. My main concern is that pinnacle is offering the best line on the White Sox - which USUALLY means that they are not that good a bet.
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  #12  
Old 10-25-2005, 11:53 AM
Feltin Licter Feltin Licter is offline
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Default Re: World Series Game 3

Do you see any value betting Chicago on the runline?

I have a hard time capping the runlines...
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  #13  
Old 10-25-2005, 12:09 PM
mrbaseball mrbaseball is offline
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Default Re: World Series Game 3

The runline looks about fair to me. The real edge looks like it's in the straight line. If +170 is correct (which I don't think it is!) the the runline should be much closer to even money. If the runline is correct (which I think is close) then the straight line should be closer to the +- 135ish range.

That said I made a very small +1.5 runline (fan!) bet just in case. But my real action on this game is on the straight line.
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  #14  
Old 10-25-2005, 12:33 PM
DougOzzzz DougOzzzz is offline
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Default Re: World Series Game 3

Interestingly enough though Pinnacle has the best price on the CWS moneyline, the run line for the Sox is poor.

Historically I am told that the +1.5 runline for large road dogs (especially with low totals) has been a winning subset. My own spreadsheet based on lines from the past 7 years though shows Pinnacle over-adjusting for the run - making the run line a poor bet compared to the ML at that particular book. Square books such as Bowman's and Sports Interaction have the run line being a very slightly better bet according to my formulas.
Here are the numbers from Pinnacle and Bowman's:

ML at Pinnacle on CWS - +172
Sox +1.5 at Pinny -145

ML at Bowmans on CWS - +162
Sox +1.5 at Bowmans -135

Pinnacle is charging an extra 20 cents for the run.
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  #15  
Old 10-25-2005, 12:33 PM
Feltin Licter Feltin Licter is offline
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Default Re: World Series Game 3

Would Mr B bet against his Sox if the price was right? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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  #16  
Old 10-25-2005, 12:42 PM
mrbaseball mrbaseball is offline
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Default Re: World Series Game 3

Never have and never will! I can bet against my beloved Bears or Spartans though if the price is right [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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  #17  
Old 10-25-2005, 01:17 PM
beset7 beset7 is offline
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Default Re: World Series Game 3

Pinny was offering crazy lines on Houston on which I made a killing during the NLCS and I was paranoid each time that such a line indicated I was missing something... So far so good.
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  #18  
Old 10-25-2005, 07:09 PM
Smackdab Smackdab is offline
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Default Re: World Series Game 3

One thing I can't believe that has failed to be mentioned in this thread. The roof factor. During regular season games decisions to open/close the roof are left to the home team. However, in postseason that decision is made by MLB. Weather is to be good in Houston tonight and it looks like MLB will leave it open. Lets break it down.

Houston with roof open. 15-11. Only twice since the end of May has it been closed. Why? 36-17 with roof closed. Also note 2-0 when starting open and finishing closed.

Oswault has been pitching like the second coming but he isn't infallible and Garland ain't that bad. Also add Sox have a fresh bullpen and can comfortably go there early and often. CWS batting .385 with 2 outs a RISP. Houston an abysmal .224.

If your taking a side the Sox have great value. I see absolutely no value on the Stros. So if your wanting a side it Sox or nothing. Also agree that Sox +1.5/30 -130 or better good value.

Small 1 unit wager Sox ML.
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  #19  
Old 10-25-2005, 07:15 PM
sublime sublime is offline
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Default Re: World Series Game 3

. My main concern is that pinnacle is offering the best line on the White Sox - which USUALLY means that they are not that good a bet.

Well, Pinny deducts so little juice in baseball that its not that big a deal. Other sports, I agree 100%.

Also, consider its the World Series. People bet on this game without even having an opinion. They talk themselves into a bet (lol, which is what they usually do anyways i guess).

Squares love to use the "have to win" and zig zag theories with baseball, but they just don't apply.
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  #20  
Old 10-25-2005, 07:39 PM
beset7 beset7 is offline
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Default Re: World Series Game 3

the roof is going to be open for sure last time i heard. not sure how big of a factor this really is but there you have it.
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