NL 5/10 With Bottom Set

[Lucky]

Villian is solid, 21/6/3, probably views me as same, but tighter in full games. This is 9 handed. Villian has 1000, i cover.

4 folds. Villian open limps. Folded to me, i complete in SB with 5h5d. BB checks.

3 to flop with 30 in pot.
FLOP [board cards 5C,10D,6S ]
I check, BB checks. Villian bets 25. I call. BB folds.

TURN [board cards 5C,10D,6S,2H ] 80 in pot
I check. Villian bets 50. I c/r to 150. Villian calls.

River RIVER [board cards 5C,10D,6S,2H,QD ] 380 in pot
I bet 200. Villian makes it 800.

I....???

[jzpiano14]

stack sizes?

[Rotterdaum]

So villain goes all in on river?
You're only afraid of a higher set,
I think it's a call. If it is a higher set, it's well played.

EDIT: Changed my mind. I think 34 and QT are probable, higher set also. Considering villain is a solid player, fold seems appropriate

[Ole16]

[ QUOTE ]
So villain goes all in on river?
You're only afraid of a higher set,
I think it's a call. If it is a higher set, it's well played.

EDIT: Changed my mind. I think 34 and QT are probable, higher set also. Considering villain is a solid player, fold seems appropriate

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain would openlimp with 43? hero is beating QT.
Only higher set probable is 66. I call.

[Lucky]

I folded. Maybe weak play, thats why i posted it.

I dont think he would have called turn c/r with Q T.

Anyway, looked like oddly played 34 or 66, I gotta think with the action, I was beaten.

However, the more i think about it, he could have hit his set on turn with 22.

[Vincent Lepore]

If this fellow is solid and views you as a "solid" player there are only two hands he can raise all in with on the river. 3,4 or a bluff. When you check raise on the turn he has to worry that you might have 3,4. Some might argue that if he had 3,4 he wouldn't bet that much on the river. He would bet enough to get paid off. But I think that if he''s solid he knows that moving in looks weaker, making a call with a fair hand more likely, so he just might make that play with that in mind. When he waits for the river to move in my guess is that his most likely hoding is 3,4. I think that you made a very tough laydown that just might have been right. Of course I don't know what the 21/6/3 means. I assume 21 is the percent of voluntarily entering the pot but I don't know what the 6/3 are. I also don't jknow whether I make the laydown. I would have to be there.

Vince

[stealyourface]

This really looks like QT or 22 to me.

[psuasskicker]

Anyway, looked like oddly played 34 or 66, I gotta think with the action, I was beaten.

Oddly played? I think it was brilliantly played if he had either of those hands.

Maybe both? But this is how I would expect most strong players to play these hands. The one possibility that you beat is 87, figuring you'll go through the same logic and will lay down anything weaker than 66. You always have to at least consider that before folding.

This really looks like QT or 22 to me.

No way a solid player calls the cr on the turn with QT. 22 probably doesn't bet on that flop, either.

I think there's no way you're not beat or being bluffed. From there it's just a matter of how often you're being bluffed compared to the pot odds you're getting. Here I don't think it warrants it. Nice laydown IMO.

- C -