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#1
10-07-2005, 04:59 AM
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Set of tens and nut flush draw on the turn
I thought this one was pretty interesting. What's your move on the turn?
$100 PL Omaha (Real Money) Total number of players : 10 Seat 6: Villain ( $100 ) = UTG+1 LAG Seat 3: Hero ( $99 ) = SB Preflop: Dealt to Hero [ T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ] Villain raises [$3.50], folded to Hero in SB, Hero calls [$3] ** Dealing Flop ** $7.60 [ 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ] Hero checks, Villain bets [$7.60], Hero calls [$7.60]. ** Dealing Turn ** [ K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ] Hero checks, Villain bets [$22.05], Hero ??? 
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#2
10-07-2005, 06:20 AM
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Re: Set of tens and nut flush draw on the turn
Where I play, he has one of two hands : AAxx or KKxx. One is wonderful for you, the other for him. Each are equally likely. The big question is whether or not he's LAG enough to keep pushing Aces here without a QJ to back it up.
Let's say you re-raise to about $88 all-in. I assume he calls with KK and folds AA. If he has AA, you win $44.10. If he has KK, you'll win 11/42 rivers netting $109 each time and you'll lose 31/42 rivers costing you $88 each time. So, AA = +$44 while KK = +109*11/42 - 88*31/42 = $-36. Therefore, if AA and KK are equally likely, raising will win you an average of $4. Of course the odds go way up if he calls here with AA. I like a call then check/call on a non-nut river better here because it wins more from AA and loses less to KK. Finally, on the off chance he has 66 or worse you still get near full value. This only falls apart if he has an insane wrap draw, like 4578 which he might check behind you if he misses. I still vote call then check/call.
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#3
10-07-2005, 01:04 PM
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Re: Set of tens and nut flush draw on the turn
I might have raised the flop but since you didn't I think you should raise the turn. You need to get as much money as you can into the pot. If he has KK then so be it, but there's no reason to think he does. He's much more likely to have AAxx. The only question is whether he will dump his hand if you raise the turn when he would have fired again on the river. If you think this to be the case, smooth call the turn and check-raise or bet all-in depending on how scary the river card looks to him. The problem is you won't like an A or J on the river.
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#4
10-07-2005, 06:17 PM
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Re: Set of tens and nut flush draw on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Where I play, he has one of two hands : AAxx or KKxx. One is wonderful for you, the other for him. Each are equally likely. The big question is whether or not he's LAG enough to keep pushing Aces here without a QJ to back it up. Let's say you re-raise to about $88 all-in. I assume he calls with KK and folds AA. If he has AA, you win $44.10. If he has KK, you'll win 11/42 rivers netting $109 each time and you'll lose 31/42 rivers costing you $88 each time. So, AA = +$44 while KK = +109*11/42 - 88*31/42 = $-36. Therefore, if AA and KK are equally likely, raising will win you an average of $4. Of course the odds go way up if he calls here with AA. I like a call then check/call on a non-nut river better here because it wins more from AA and loses less to KK. Finally, on the off chance he has 66 or worse you still get near full value. This only falls apart if he has an insane wrap draw, like 4578 which he might check behind you if he misses. I still vote call then check/call. [/ QUOTE ] Nice analysis, except for this part: "Each are equally likely." As the hero has an ace, I'd say kings are more likely. I'd probably fold there unless the villian was hyper aggressive, in which case I'd check-call the turn and either bet or check-crying call the river depending on if I hit it or not.
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#5
10-07-2005, 06:45 PM
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Re: Set of tens and nut flush draw on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Nice analysis, except for this part: "Each are equally likely." As the hero has an ace, I'd say kings are more likely. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Sorry, but this is just stupid. Hero has an ace, but THERE IS A KING ON THE BOARD. It is a fact that players are more likely to raise preflop with aces than kings. He is definitely more likely to have aces. Folding is just horrible poker. I'm not opposed to check/calling down, but I'm not convinced it's best, either.
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#6
10-07-2005, 06:48 PM
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Re: Set of tens and nut flush draw on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Nice analysis, except for this part: "Each are equally likely." As the hero has an ace, I'd say kings are more likely. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Sorry, but this is just stupid. Hero has an ace, but THERE IS A KING ON THE BOARD. [/ QUOTE ] Oops. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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#7
10-07-2005, 07:39 PM
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Re: Set of tens and nut flush draw on the turn
Are you sure his range of raising hands are exclusively AA or KK?
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#8
10-07-2005, 09:21 PM
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Re: Set of tens and nut flush draw on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Are you sure his range of raising hands are exclusively AA or KK? [/ QUOTE ] No. But I'd say it's at least 50% chance of AA. Maybe 1/6 KK.
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#9
10-07-2005, 09:21 PM
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Re: Set of tens and nut flush draw on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Seat 6: Villain ( $100 ) = UTG+1 LAG [/ QUOTE ] More reason not to fear the worst and get your money in.
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#10
10-07-2005, 10:43 PM
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Re: Set of tens and nut flush draw on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Seat 6: Villain ( $100 ) = UTG+1 LAG [/ QUOTE ] More reason not to fear the worst and get your money in. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know about you guys, but if I'm considering folding this I'm in the wrong game.
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