Tough spot with QQ on turn...pot too big and I dont know where I am

[Delphin]

[ QUOTE ]
I decide to take the free card and check behind.

River: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB bets $60, BB folds (!!), I call.

SB shows T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Chop chop. Did not see that one coming.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely put one of them on a Q, and when the K comes off you have to be more than a little concerned about AQ.

But calling the $60 is a no brainer. Would you have called a push?

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
Which cards, other than the 5c, do you not want to see on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet the full pot on the flop. This is actually rare for me, as my usual bet is about 75-85% of the pot regardless of if I have a monster or am just continuation betting. I got called in 2 spots after some fairly aggressive preflop action.

Preflop, for the SB to reraise the FIRST hand I played at the table, I put him on a big pair and possibly AK with about a 20% chance for something like 66 and below (I've seen players do this to try and win a huge pot when they hit). For the BB to cold-call instantly told me something like 99-JJ and maybe AK.

On the flop I'm most worried about the BB but the reraise-check line from the SB is just so freaking suspicious that I need to bet and see what's going on. Called in two spots and I instantly start to think about a flush draw (Ac Kc?) and the BB's call-call line is getting even more suspicious.

Thus I potentially don't want to see a club on the turn, a board-pairing card, or even a Q. Thats like 18 cards or something.

I checked the turn because I thought it was reasonably likely that I was either dead to a flush or way behind a set (that was also scared by the club and decided to let another card go by to try and fill). The river makes me a 5 card hand which gives me showdown value, and I called a less-than-half pot bet from the SB (the BB dropped...can't be sure what he had).

The Doc

[DrPublo]

I'm getting better than 2:1 on a push so probably, although I think I'd be happier calling a push from the SB than the BB.

The Doc

[Stormwolf]

This is a terrible flop for your hand, you should have checked

[amoeba]

with the OESD, its not that bad.

but I would have checked as well.

there aren't that many hands that would reraise that you are ahead of right now.

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a terrible flop for your hand, you should have checked

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree 100%.

Let's (conservatively) estimate the SB's re-raising standards are AA, KK, QQ, Aks and Ako.

According to pokerstove,

Board: Jc 9s Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.0982 % 56.33% 01.77% { QdQs }
Hand 2: 41.9018 % 40.14% 01.77% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


How is this a bad flop for me?

I also think I need to bet to see what exactly the BB has and to try and make the pot heads up. In addition, if I wind up taking it down as little as 5% of the time I'm a very happy man.

The Doc

[amoeba]

you put AK in his range but not JJ?

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a terrible flop for your hand, you should have checked

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree 100%.

Let's (conservatively) estimate the SB's re-raising standards are AA, KK, QQ, Aks and Ako.

According to pokerstove,

Board: Jc 9s Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.0982 % 56.33% 01.77% { QdQs }
Hand 2: 41.9018 % 40.14% 01.77% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


How is this a bad flop for me?

I also think I need to bet to see what exactly the BB has and to try and make the pot heads up. In addition, if I wind up taking it down as little as 5% of the time I'm a very happy man.

The Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

Further equity calculations...

If I put the BB on any pair JJ and below and also AKs and AKo, my equity is

Board: Jc 9s Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.7518 % 45.30% 01.45% { QdQs }
Hand 2: 35.8578 % 33.90% 01.96% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 17.3903 % 16.79% 00.60% { JJ-22, AKs, AKo }


I definitely need to bet the flop, especially to see exactly where the BB stands in all of this.

The Doc

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
you put AK in his range but not JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you see players reraise out of position with JJ more often or AK?

If you do add JJ to the range it only affects the numbers by about 1% (notice that the 2nd equity calculation includes JJ for the SB).

The Doc

[TheWorstPlayer]

This pot is three way.