Math Question...Need Help

[jrforman]

2/4 NL on Prima

6 or 7 handed when this comes up...

One limper to me, and I make it 12 to go with Ad/Js on button, blinds fold and limper calls. I have 250, limper has me covered.

(30) 9d 7d 9h...Limper checks, I bet 16, limper CR to 54...My read on limper is he will slow play big hands and raise big draws trying to take down the pot on the flop...I re-raise all-in to 250, with a slight lean (60/40) that he wiil lay his draw down.

My main question is what % of the time does he have to fold his draw for this to be profitable? Comments on how I played the hand are appreciated as well. Thanks

[AZK]

bump

How often does villain have to lay his draw down on the flop for a move like this to be profitable?

[kagame]

in a scenario where you dont hold the Ad...

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 9d 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Jh 400 40.40 437 44.14 153 15.45 0.481
Ad 2d 437 44.14 400 40.40 153 15.45 0.519

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 9d 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Jh 321 32.42 660 66.67 9 0.91 0.329
Td 8d 660 66.67 321 32.42 9 0.91 0.671

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 9s 9d 7d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Jh 422 42.63 545 55.05 23 2.32 0.438
Jd Td 545 55.05 422 42.63 23 2.32 0.562

[MikeL05]

You bet $250 into a $100 pot. Therefore, you need it to be 2.5 to 1 to have even odds... which means you can't lose more than 1 out of 3.5 times, which is 28.5% or so. So, if you're drawing dead, you shouldn't make this bet unless he folds 71.5% of the time. But you've got SOME outs somehow. I'd calculate that in, but that's usually how I figure my "edge". IE if I KNEW he would fold around 71.5% of the time, making this a pointless, even proposition, I'd still have the cushion of drawing out on him to make it +EV in my favor.

[Marlow]

Hiya-

Where's the engine that runs these numbers? Looks useful.

Marlow
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[sirtimo]

pokerstove.com

[Marlow]

gracias.