AK in a tough spot - Page 3

Eeegah · #21 12-15-2005, 10:12 PM

The obvious answer is to cap. Given that you are one of the most aggro folks in ML (and that's saying a lot), I figure you'd cap without a second thought--maybe not a first.

So why didn't you cap?

ajm36 · #22 12-15-2005, 10:15 PM

If this is a response to me (which I don't think it is), I am a big fat wus.

bozlax · #23 12-15-2005, 11:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The obvious answer is to cap. Given that you are one of the most aggro folks in ML (and that's saying a lot), I figure you'd cap without a second thought--maybe not a first.

So why didn't you cap?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. How do you know I didn't cap?

ajm has actually summed up my thinking on this hand the best so far. Two things factored for me:

First, this guy was NOT a rock. His VPIP was around the same as mine, and, yeah, it's a small sample, but he hasn't found a single opportunity to raise preflop? No isolations, no steals, nothing? So, I don't buy the argument that he's isolating to try and lift 2.5BB off UTG, and at the same time I skew his pfr range higher, call it QQ-AA, AKs, AKo. (Also, since he's a passive, if I DO hit the flop my implieds are for [censored].)

Second, UTG does factor into the equation, because he's got two cards, and he's not going away. AK has at worst about 50% against any ONE opponent that's not holding AA or KK. TWO opponents drives that down; and, again, if I do hit my implieds are for [censored].

My first thought was "cappucino" (literally), but I considered it before I hit the button. And I folded. And I think I was right, although I'm too tired to put any math to it, and I think it's REALLY close (so close that AKs would have been a cap without a second thought). But, basically, a large portion of his range is going to put me in the position of winning the least with the best hand and losing the most with the second best hand if I hit on the flop, and folding if I don't.

So, anyway, here's the whole hand, as I'm sure you're all dying to see it:

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 2 folds, MP2 3-bets, 5 folds, UTG caps, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, MP2 raises, UTG calls $0.13 (All-In).

Turn: (6.31 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (6.31 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: 6.31 BB

UTG flips T9o.
MP2 flips KK.

Oh, and for those of you that are going to say I'm being results-oriented, I don't think I am. My thought process was exactly as I've outlined it (I actually ran the timer down to about 3 seconds before I folded), and I stand by it.

Eeegah · #24 12-15-2005, 11:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
LOL. How do you know I didn't cap?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you posted this thread. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Eeegah · #25 12-15-2005, 11:59 PM

Also, for what its worth SSHE recommends a fold in this situation. Hilger's book recommends a cap, interestingly enough.

bozlax · #26 12-16-2005, 01:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
LOL. How do you know I didn't cap?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you posted this thread. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny...I almost did cap, and then I almost didn't post the hand. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

benkath1 · #27 12-16-2005, 01:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
LOL. How do you know I didn't cap?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you posted this thread. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny...I almost did cap, and then I almost didn't post the hand. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny....I was going to ask if you would have posted the hand if you had played it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

milesdyson · #28 12-16-2005, 03:02 AM

Funny... wait wh

bozlax · #29 12-16-2005, 01:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
LOL. How do you know I didn't cap?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you posted this thread. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny...I almost did cap, and then I almost didn't post the hand. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny....I was going to ask if you would have posted the hand if you had played it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I would have posted the hand, regardless. It's interesting, IMO, and those are the kinds of hands I try to post.

imported_The Vibesman · #30 12-16-2005, 03:02 PM

I completely agree with your thought process, Boz, it's what I was thinking when you posted your read on the 3bettor. He just doesn't seem the type to isolate.

One discussion point, you mention, as do others that AKs would seem an easy cap. I have generally agreed, but in reviewing my last 5,000 hands or so, I'm a bigger winner with AKo than I am with AKs. Small sample, and could easily just be variance. But I've wondered a bit whether or not I have been overvaluing the suitedness of the hand; pushing a bit harder than I should since it is soooted. Do you guys really think AKs makes up the difference between raise and fold here? Are there any numbers to support that? I'm just interested in your arguments.