Flop a set, in huge pot, but might be behind!

WordWhiz · #1 11-27-2005, 02:12 PM

Paradise Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, MP3 caps, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB (All-In) raises, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (17.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, Hero raises, MP3 folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB

The reraise with 99 preflop is a tad frisky, but his was a somewhat loose aggressive table, so I didn't give UTG's raise much credit. However, when we go to the flop capped with 5 players, I figure I'm playing for set value.

Calling the flop seems a bit weak, but I considered this one of those circumstances where the turn would dramatically change my equity. If a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8, Q, K, or even an A comes, I could be looking at a made flush, straight, or higher set.
For all I know, I'm already looking at a higher set and drawing to one out.

So I call the flop, waiting for the turn to see if I should raise/ fold then. Instead, I chicken out and just call again. I'm scared because SB has done nothing but bet this whole time. But this was probably a mistake--I should raise and make AK or KK pay off my set.

River is fairly easy.

Thoughts?

#2 11-27-2005, 02:20 PM

Postflop: Raise the flop. If not, then raise the turn. You flopped what you were looking for. If you want to wait for a safe card, you got it on the turn. I don't think now is the time to worry about a higher set. And it doesn't appear based on the action that anyone has KQ (I think we'd see a raise on the flop with that board). Quick question: The hand history says "BB (all-in) raises" on the turn. But then he bets the river?

#3 11-27-2005, 02:28 PM

I'm not sure about the flop but I think I'm raising here to see who will come with me so I can see who is on a draw or has a big pair.

The turn is about the safest card you could hope for. If you were ahead on the flop you are still ahead here, raise.

River is fine.

#4 11-27-2005, 02:28 PM

I probably raise the flop here for value, you have a monster hand and have huge huge pot equity already. One arguement for smoothcalling is that it allows you to 3 bet if MP3 raises, or allows you to raise the turn to protect if MP3 has AK or KK. But I think I still raise.

As played I think you really need to 3 bet the turn. You might be behind but the pot is 4 handed so you're getting a huge overlay from all the other players that are likely drawing really thin or dead.