44 blind defense

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You're acting like every player at 6-max is just a non-stop betting machine, regardless of reads.

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thats ridiculous, i just used it as a factor as to why a player would be more likely to bet than if the game had been full ring.

basically either:
a) he has a good hand (likely PP such as TT or AJ/KJ/QJs) that he has pacified out of fear from your checkraise
b) he has overs that he called down with hoping that if he hit he would take the pot (likely AK)
c) he has a very good hand he is getting tricky with or is looking for a safe river (risk aversion) which he now has
d) he has something else entirely, unlikely

basically, he has you beat or he doesnt, and chances are very high that the river didnt change the situation between you.

now... we bet the river because we either want better hands to fold, or worse hands to call.
if he holds a better hand, i think its safe enough to assume he isnt folding here.... so little that its negligent
so we are betting because we want him to call with a worse hand. so the only factor that affects the value bet here is the times he calls with AK or AQ.

betting the river also opens us up to option c, and a raise now from hands like AJ or QQ that feel they have to raise. and when they raise assuming we must call the 1BB mistake of checking through is instead a 2BB mistake in bet/calling.

im ignoring check/fold as an option here, as i think we are easily good 1 in 8 times... so...

we check to either induce a bluff with a worse hand, or to lose less against a better hand.

so the factors working in favour of a check/call here are
a) that the vil is going to bet the river with a worse hand like AK or AQ that if you had bet he most likely would have folded, thus getting another bet out of him. i think this is highly likely, but this factor doesnt even have to have him do it 50% to be profitable, it just has to be a bigger factor than the chance he calls with A-high which i believe it is by a long way
b) that the vil is going to check through the river with a PP or Jx hand. here your check comes out of nowhere when the board has put 4 cards for a straight... i think most vils will check behind here with anything but AJ or KJ on this river, hands which would otherwise have called you, thereby saving yourself a bet.

reasons for check/calling seem to far outweigh any reasons for bet/folding or bet/calling

[LoaferGee12]

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and when they raise assuming we must call the 1BB mistake of checking through is instead a 2BB mistake in bet/calling.


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We're bet/folding.
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so the factors working in favour of a check/call here are
a) that the vil is going to bet the river with a worse hand like AK or AQ that if you had bet he most likely would have folded, thus getting another bet out of him. i think this is highly likely, but this factor doesnt even have to have him do it 50% to be profitable, it just has to be a bigger factor than the chance he calls with A-high which i believe it is by a long way


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I guess this is where we can agree to disagree.

[sean c]

Hi Loafer i'm in the check/call or check/fold boat here. I don't see any reason to bet after he calls the turn but i don't play 6 max and am unsure how often people call river bets with ace high so take it fwiw.