WSOP Main Event Day 1 Hand: Call or Fold?

MrJinx · #1 07-12-2005, 02:20 AM

Level 3 of the WSOP Main Event (blinds @100-200 No Ante). I am C0-1 w/7400, Villian is UTG+1 w/5100. Villian has only been playing 1-2 hands per orbit...his postflop play consists of mainly either raising or folding to this point (I've only seen him just call once postflop). Only hand I've seen him showdown was AQs in which he raised 4bb UTG. He lost a few pots last level in which he played aggressively but mucked or didnt show.

Action: UTG limps for 200, Villian (UTG+1) limps, UTG+2 limps, I limp w K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], sb and bb call. 6 handed w 1200 in Pot.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG checks, Villian checks, UTG+2 checks, I make it 1000 w top 2 (now 2200 pot), SB folds, BB folds, UTG thinks forever and folds (he had ~3000 in chips), Villain then thinks for several seconds and announces "All In"...calling the 1000 and raising 3900 more.

Call or Fold?

billyjex · #2 07-12-2005, 02:38 AM

this is a tough call, because you're crippled if you lose. i think this is a muck preflop -- even with those limpers KTo is a crappy hand that will make too many second best hands.

let's see what UTG+1 can have. he got some piece of this board but since it is so draw heavy this could be a semibluff and you could be ahead. hands you beat are an ace high club draw, something like QT/QT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and JT. Your behind to KJ, and maybe a passively played (preflop) JJ/TT/AQ. the blinds are low and after a limper someone may just want to limp with these hands. Q9 is also possible here.

To be honest, the hands you beat have a load of outs against you and the hands that beat you you are drawing to 2 or 4 outs against. I think you can muck and save your chips for a better situation.

Sluss · #3 07-12-2005, 07:14 AM

Bleh, I hate this spot. I would think your ahead of his Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but KJ is possible, as is J10.

I'm probably not gambling here unless this table has been real tough and I'm going to be in trouble if I don't pick up some sort of a stack.

LarsVegas · #4 07-12-2005, 07:40 AM

I hate the preflop call.

lars

Mez · #5 07-12-2005, 11:00 AM

Hate this spot. Opponent could have just about any hand. Dislike hte limp preflop. I think I'd have to call here getting 2:1, but i wouldn't be happy about it.

PokerCrab · #6 07-12-2005, 11:48 AM

I really think you gotta be ahead on the flop. The only way he make a straight is Q9 or AQ. Could this guy be playing a Q9 in early position - I think you can only answer that....AQ - I dont think so. He would probably have raised preflop with that....only hand I think you only need to worry about is KJ if you decide that this guy wont play a Q9 up front. With 5600 peeps in this year's WSOP - if you decide to play K10o then you gotta be ready to gamble on the flop too when you hit it this hard.

Mez · #7 07-12-2005, 10:27 PM

I don't see how we can discount KJ, JJ, and TT in this situation. Also, he could have limped with Kings in EP if the table is often seeing LP raises.

Again, not happy about the call but I likely make it.

allenciox · #8 07-12-2005, 01:49 PM

You HAVE to call. Following are his possible hands:
1. 5-10% stone cold bluff. You are almost 100% here.
2. Hands which you beat, on average, about 2/3 of the time --- Ax clubs --- he might limp with any ace-suited, a lot of people do (11 hands, excluding AQclubs which beats you). AJo or ATo with an ace of clubs (6 hands), in which case he has a backdoor nut flush draw, a gutshot straight draw, and probable outs pairing the board or the ace in his hand. KQo (12 hands). Perhaps even QJo or QTo, particularly if one of the cards is a club (24 hands). JTo (9 hands) Total of 72 hands. He doesn't have QQ-AA, as he would have almost certainly raised with those to isolate the limper in front of him.

3. Hands which currently have you beat, but you can outdraw --- these include AQo(16 hands) you have 4 outs in this case which will hit 1/6 of the time. Also KJ (9 hands), and possibly TT (3 hands) (JJ probably would have raised as well, and TT might, so we'll just count one of them). Total of 28 hands.

Even if we completely discount the possibility he is bluffing, we have 72 hands that we have a 67% edge and 28 hands that we are averaging only about 15%. We have better than a 52% equity in the pot, but it is paying us almost 2:1 for us to call the bet! Even if we say he might not have raised all-in with some of those 72 hands, it is a trivial call.

MrJinx · #9 07-12-2005, 10:49 PM

1. Do you really think there is a 5-10% chance of a stonecold bluff here? It's a 6 handed pot, there are still
two limpers and the preflop raiser behind UTG+2. What type of hands would a tight player have here in early position that he could be bluffing stonecold with?

2. Axclubs...again, conservative player preflop, playing in early position. Even if he's getting splashy, A5c is probably the lowest possible hand here. That makes 5 hands in which he has 12 outs(A5c-A9c), one hand in which he has 14 outs (ATc) and one hand in which you have 4 outs (AQc). AJo, QTo, QJo, KQo and ATo are possabilities here, but you have to lower their probability as it is doubtful that a player would want to put his World Series on the line with such weak draws and the flush draw on board (the checkraise-allin line lowers their probabilities). JTo is a very strong possability here. QTc makes sense here also, which would be a coinflip.

3. Agree with your reasoning here, although a limp is more and more likely with JJ or TT as the stacks are deep around the table and UTG opted to limp.

I think the math is flawed here as the line taken by UTG+2 (myself) on this hand severely limits some of the hands listed by yourself as strong possibilities.

sirtemple · #10 07-13-2005, 12:34 AM

This highlights one of the things I find fascinating about poker. Because of the PF chips in the pot you are each getting odds to go to the felt here. You played the hand aggressivily, but correctly, and he correctly called. the rest is just how the cards come out. If you can't live with the varience of not hitting your huge draw, don't play it so aggressive. I personally liked your play alot, but you have to be ready to go broke when the draw doesn't hit.