(Nothing Special) - River 5/10 6max

[AEKDBet]

I am seen as tight; I have never check-raised flop, and have given up several flops when I raised PF and villain lead into me on low boards.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Hero ($1441.50)
MP ($2510.25)
CO ($1876.21)
Button ($401.50)
SB ($1807)
BB ($631)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $30, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $50</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $150</font>, CO calls $100.

Turn: ($375) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $250</font>, CO calls $250.

River: ($875) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

hmmmmm.... I think I know what the "best" play is... I'd like to hear from others 1st.

[Hattifnatt]

Bet 300, if he pushes, fold.

[AEKDBet]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet 300, if he pushes, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he pushes
-$1175 100% of the time.
If he folds
+875
There is not much calling going on here, but if he does I'm beat.

He can push with anything
He folds only missed draws and maybe a 7 (when he doesn't push with them).

It's important to think about how my action w/o a jack, will blend with my actions when I have the jack. The one with the most EV wins.

[spahk]

i can't think of many hands he can have here that you are beating. 8c9c? maybe? so being out of position with a hand that is probably behind, i'm not sure you can do much better than 0 ev (check and fold).

obviously, any hand with a J is going nowhere. just for fun though, list of possible hands he could have that you might be able to fold:

AA, KK
9T
7x
88

7s is a little unlikely because of the flop action, unless it is 78. KK, and AA reraise preflop? 78, 88, AA, KK 3-bet the flop? do we know?

in order to be successful, villain has to have a hand he will fold enough times compared to when he's got a J. and then we've got to bet enough to actually make those hands fold, which means losing more those times he does have a J. someone can calculate, but it doesn't seem close to me. unless i am missing something obvious. i guess in the unlikely event that you are ahead, checking is a disaster...

[AEKDBet]

ala pokerstove
board
7s 8c jd 7c jh
equity for Villain: 31.5%
{ TT, 88, AJs, QJs, JTs, T9s-T7s, 98s, 87s, AJo }

equity for Hero: 68.4%
{ AA-QQ, AJs, AJo }