Inflection point?

[CardSharpCook]

Thank you, Learned. I disagree with his theory, but thanks to you I now know what "inflection point" means. [ QUOTE ]
I think it's a little glib to say you're "likely behind 3:1." Yes, you are behind 3:1 quite a bit of the time, but how often? Sometimes you are actually ahead here, after all. My sense is that you probably have slightly the worst of it by calling, but that doesn't mean a call is incorrect.

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Fnurt, yes, of course he is ahead here sometimes, but other times he is drawing to running outs, and still other times he is drawing dead. I think that saying our hero has about 25% equity in this situation is accurate.

One more thing, if hero can't fold here, then he should have known that PF and pushed PF. But that isn't the case as he has a nice 10BBs behind. I like having 10BBs, it takes away all the hard decisions and leaves it all to PF math. It is a nice break from the stressful decisions we are forced to make in NL tournies.

CSC

[valenzuela]

I would push preflop..Am I an idiot...or just agressive?

[adanthar]

I push PF too, because AQ calls.

[A_PLUS]

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One more thing, if hero can't fold here, then he should have known that PF and pushed PF.

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I agree most of the time. However, with your stack the way it is, making a standard raise knowing that the rest of your chips are following no matter what is a high variance strategy I will use on occasion. I think something that people tend to forget about (me included), is that within the next orbit or two, finding a 40% equity spot to double (+2x whatever blinds you can steal) is fairly likely. So 500 chips are hardly worthless.

I think we tend to under-estimate our future stack sizes when we fold here.

IMO, the distribution looks something like:
call: 75% 0 , 25% apx 1600
fold: (within this blind level) 60% 0, 40% apx 1000 chips.

I dont know if this makes this a fold or not, I am still leaning call, but something to consider.

[faustusmedea]

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I push PF too, because AQ calls.

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Hmmm, I sometimes limp AQ UTG and can lay it down to an all-in.

My own take would be to make a slightly larger PFR in order to not give him 2/1 on his call, but still enticing him in as your hand is strong. If you get the call with the situation presented, you can consider his holdings.

He probably does not hold a big pair as he would have pushed you back PF. The likelihood of a bluff is pretty good based on your read; maybe as high as 15%. The rest of his plausible holdings include a mix of mid pairs, A8/A4/A2, or a heart draw. Once he is at the flop, most bets commit him as well, so a push makes sense.

I think its an easy call.

[Exitonly]

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Hmmm, I sometimes limp AQ UTG and can lay it down to an all-in.


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His point wasn't that all AQ's will call the all-in.. just that it will enough to make it a good play.

And i'd say most people wouldn't lay down AQ there.

[CardSharpCook]

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IMO, the distribution looks something like:
call: 75% 0 , 25% apx 1600
fold: (within this blind level) 60% 0, 40% apx 1000 chips.

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Are you suggesting that folding here means you are out within the level 60% of the time? Not sure I follow you here.

[DarrenX]

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I push PF too, because AQ calls.

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Hmmm, I sometimes limp AQ UTG and can lay it down to an all-in.

My own take would be to make a slightly larger PFR in order to not give him 2/1 on his call, but still enticing him in as your hand is strong. If you get the call with the situation presented, you can consider his holdings.

He probably does not hold a big pair as he would have pushed you back PF. The likelihood of a bluff is pretty good based on your read; maybe as high as 15%. The rest of his plausible holdings include a mix of mid pairs, A8/A4/A2, or a heart draw. Once he is at the flop, most bets commit him as well, so a push makes sense.

I think its an easy call.

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I NEVER would have put him on A2- but you were right... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[faustusmedea]

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Hmmm, I sometimes limp AQ UTG and can lay it down to an all-in.


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His point wasn't that all AQ's will call the all-in.. just that it will enough to make it a good play.

And i'd say most people wouldn't lay down AQ there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry to disagree, but most folks bring in AQ with a raise. Its usually the more conservative amongst us that limp it UTG and many of them fold it off to a push. It doesn't make sense to build your strategy on one holding that in the case presented is probably not likely

Fm

[DarrenX]

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I'm not sure I have a good definition of inflection point, but it has nothing to do with this hand.



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In HOH I Harrington gives an example of an "inflection point hand" where you hold QQ on an ace high board and reraise allin after much of your stack is invested despite the fact that the raiser most likely has an ace. He goes through a pot equity calculation - you have 2 outs twice against an ace plus some chance that you are good already.

The "inflection point" part of that hand is that even if the pot odds aren't quite there he argues you need to take your stand there b/c if you fold you will be down to 4000 chips when the chip leader's have 50K. In HoH II terms you are making a very thin call because folding gives you such a low M (as well as a low defined-in-HOH II-and-then-pretty-much-ignored Q, the measure of relative position vs. average stack) that you are in very bad shape. So you call and pray. In the example the guy has JJ -- point made.

I believe this hand is the one the poster is using as comparison for his situation. The difference, as some has noted, is that it is too early to be thinking this way. With around 10x the BB and early in the tournament, if the odds aren't there to call with AK, and I don't think they are, barring a read, fold. There will be better chances.

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By the way, you are correct that this was the hand to which I was referring... and after rereading it yesterday I do believe these hands remain similar. I don't believe what made the HOH hand an 'inflection point' hand had much to do with WHEN in the tourney as much as it had to do with having a stack that would keep you in contention. I think it's close, but I tend to believe that this is a call not because I have the odds to do so, but because it beats the alternative of a microstack... but I could be missing the point.